New Contract For Rielly Is An Endorsement Of Leafs’ Core

The Toronto Maple Leafs removed what could have been a massive distraction when they signed veteran defenseman Morgan Rielly to an eight-year, $60-million contract extension on Friday. The 28-year-old Rielly would have been an unrestricted free agent next summer, and definitely would’ve received interest from a slew of teams. He also would’ve earned more than the $7.5-million-per-season payday he’ll be getting from Toronto; recently-extended young-ish defensemen like Rielly have seen their pay rate escalate to the $9-million-per-season level, and with so few experienced, mobile, smart D-men expected to be on the market in the 2022 off-season, there’s no question Rielly would’ve had teams lining up to pay him more than Leafs GM Kyle Dubas agreed to pay him Friday.

Some critics of Rielly’s new deal will correctly note that $7.5 million per season is below market value. But in the final few years of the contract, Rielly will be approaching (and reaching) his mid-thirties, and won’t have nearly the positive impact he has had in his eight seasons as a Leaf, so that $7.5-million salary-cap hit may eventually become burdensome. That’s fair, but you have to remember that, in the minds of NHL GMs, eight years is an eternity. The league is littered with stories of GMs who lock up players to long-term deals that, in many cases, outlived the GM’s tenure with the franchise. That could be the case here, as Dubas is under immense pressure to get high-quality hockey out of his lineup; if the Leafs fail to show progress, it’s possible Dubas won’t even be around for the midway point of Rielly’s new contract.

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But that’s the pessimistic view. The optimistic view is that, despite Toronto’s painful playoff performances of late, Rielly chose to take a hometown (and yes, the West Coast native has been in Leafs Land long enough to consider Toronto his home) salary haircut to stay with the Buds and be here when things finally start going their way.

Unfortunately, in the short term, the Leafs’ cap crunch is now going to be more difficult for Dubas to navigate through. Even if you use the $1.2 million in cap space from the retained portion of former Leafs winger Phil Kessel’s deal, and add that to Rielly’s current cap hit of $5-million per year, you’re still using another $1.3 in cap space to accommodate Rielly. The Leafs are almost assuredly going to need to fill out their roster in the 2022-23 campaign with more bargain-basement fliers on fringe or aging NHLers.

The trade-off for that cap crunch is the Leafs now have their top four D-men (including Jake Muzzin, T.J. Brodie, and Justin Holl) signed through the 2022-23 season, and have three (Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie) signed through 2023-24. That gives Toronto stability on the back end, but if the Leafs crater the current season, there’s no guarantee their management will even want all four of them around.

Now, at least, Dubas has cost certainty both up front and on the blueline. He’s still going to need to be creative with his cap space if he chooses to bring back goalie Jack Campbell. Ostensible No. 2 goalie Petr Mrazek is signed through 2023-24, but there’s a potential weak spot that will open up if Campbell (a) thrives this year, and (b) is wooed out of Toronto by a far stronger contract offer from some other team.

Signing Rielly is a tacit endorsement of the core from Leafs ownership, but considering what we’ve seen up until this point, Toronto is still a work-in-progress of a Stanley Cup frontrunner. That said, if things don’t work out for Rielly and the rest of the team, with real progress this season, it’s likely Dubas won’t have another chance to endorse his key players.

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