Success of Sandin, Liligren Means Holl’s Time With Leafs May End Soon

The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently facing a salary cap crunch, and with a flat cap expectation for 2022-23 and beyond, that cap crunch is probably going to be an adversary to them for quite some time. So GM Kyle Dubas is going to have some choices to make on Toronto’s lineup, and, as every team does, they’re going to use as much of their cap space – and potential cap space they can free up in trades – to consistently succeed.

That’s where defenseman Justin Holl comes in. The 29-year-old has been a healthy scratch for the Leafs for six of their past 13 games, and his very affordable $2-million-a-year salary makes him an intriguing bit of trade bait for Dubas. And what may have sealed Holl’s fate regarding going on the trade block are the performances this year of youngsters Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liligren.

When Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe put together the third defenseman pairing of Liligren and Sandin together, he was experimenting to see how the two youngsters could play at hockey’s highest level. And both of them proved they could do it, albeit in limited minutes. It’s natural to hope they continue to grow, but on this team, at this time, they’re playing sheltered minutes, and the Leafs’ top-four defensemen are getting the prime assignments. And, leaving their most recent loss to the L.A. Kings aside, the Buds’ defense has looked solid in front of No. 1 goalie Jack Campbell.

That has left Holl out in the wilderness, low on the totem pole, and unlikely to wedge his way back. Injuries may change that picture, but it’s starting to feel like it felt with former Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen: the player doesn’t sense that he’s a long-term fit with the team, and his play is consequently a little off. Before Holl was scratched, his play was more than a little off. And if the Leafs couldn’t see him sticking around beyond next season, when he’s scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent, they needed to showcase him, which is what they did in Monday’s loss to the Kings. That process should continue in the coming weeks.

Keefe’s benching of Holl sent an unmistakable message to Holl: he was willing to risk a letdown in play from the pair of Liligren and Sandin if it meant preventing Holl from letting them down again. And that’s a stark message to receive. We shall see if Holl responds positively when he returns to action Wednesday in Philadelphia, but if he does, he knows he’s increasingly likely to be dealt by the March 21 trade deadline. Teams will see he’s under contract for one more year after this one, and feel better about paying a second-or-third-round draft pick or longer-term prospect.

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The door never closes on an NHLer and any particular team when the player wants it to. They go through a bad stretch and hear it from the fans and media, and there are always players on the sideline who can’t wait to take their spot and make themselves a must-play. Sandin and Liligren haven’t exactly torn it up on offense – Liligren has one assist in seven games, while Sandin has four assists in 13 GP – but they’ve been stable enough to earn Keefe’s confidence. In a cap-compliant world, that matters.

Sure, you’d love it if Holl finds a way to turn his year around at both ends of the ice, but very few teams have fixed defensive pairings through their top six D-men. If you’re fortunate, you develop a top-four group of defensemen, and you let the final pairing be a constant source of veterans on a one-or-two-year-deal, or newcomers on standardized, cheap rookie contracts.

That’s essentially what Dubas and Leafs’ management have done. However, thus far this year, Holl has not performed at a top-four level. So he’s opened up the door for Travis Dermott to make an impact. But if he were playing with the poise and patience he’s shown in the past, Dubas & Co. would happily hang onto him for this season and next.

Unfortunately for Holl, the Leafs cannot afford a $2 million cap hit on a player who gets stuck in a fringe role. Other teams may see Holl as a top-four guy, and he may well prove to be that. But there are too many factors at play here, and many of them point a way out of Toronto, rather than pointing back to a long stay for him.

It’s not all Holl’s fault. It’s just the way the world works in a salary cap era.

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