The Flyers Are On The Wrong Side Of The Thanksgiving Line

A two-game pre-Thanksgiving spin through the Sunshine State did little to improve the fortunes of the Philadelphia Flyers.

The offense-starved club managed just one goal, Joel Farabee‘s fifth of the year.

On Tuesday, the Flyers were shut out 4-0 by the Tampa Bay Lightning. On Wednesday, they squandered a 43- save performance from Martin Jones in their 2-1 overtime loss to the Florida Panthers.

With NHL observers taking stock of team’s playoff chances during the one-day Thanksgiving break, the Flyers sit seventh in the Metropolitan Division with a record of 8-6-4.

Sizing Up The Standings

As of Thanksgiving, here’s how the playoff race stacks up in the Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division

1. Florida Panthers – 31 pts
2. Toronto Maple Leafs – 29 pts
3. Tampa Bay Lightning – 25 pts

Metropolitan Division

1. Carolina Hurricanes – 29 pts
2. Washington Capitals – 29 pts
3. New York Rangers – 27 pts

Wild Card

1. Columbus Blue Jackets – 22 pts
2. Pittsburgh Penguins – 22 pts
   

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3. Detroit Red Wings – 21 pts
4. Boston Bruins – 20 pts
5. New Jersey Devils – 20 pts
6. Philadelphia Flyers – 20 pts

The picture changes a bit if you look at teams by their points percentages. With just 16 games played, Boston’s .625 percentage would bump them into the second wild-card spot. At .588 with 17 games played, New Jersey would also rank above Pittsburgh (.579 with 19 games played). And at .500 with 21 games played, Detroit would fall three spots, behind the Bruins, Devils and Flyers (.556 in 18 games played).

The wild-card positioning would be Blue Jackets and Bruins in; Devils, Penguins, Flyers and Red Wings out.

No matter how you slice it, Philadelphia will need to leapfrog multiple teams just to get into the second wild-card spot.

Are The Flyers Better?

Now in Year 3 under Alain Vigneault, how do the 2021-22 Flyers stack up against his earlier teams?

Here are a few key stats to compare:

Record Through 18 Games

• 2021-22: 8-6-4, 20 pts
• 2020-21: 11-4-3, 25 pts
• 2019-20: 10-5-3, 23 pts

These numbers raise eyebrows. We remember the 2019-20 season for a slow start, before the Flyers caught fire after Christmas, and last year’s campaign as an unmitigated disaster.

As it turns out, the club’s 18th game in Vigneault’s first season concluded a promising 5-0-2 early-season stretch.

Last season, the Flyers were four games into the return from their February Covid-19 game postponements, riding a three-game win streak and back-to-back shutouts against Buffalo on Feb. 27-28. The season went sideways immediately after that. Philadelphia went 6-10-2 in the month of March, on the way to a final record of 25-23-8.

Key Metrics Through 18 Games (2021-22, 2020-21, 2019-20)

• Goals For: 44, 61, 54
• Goal Against: 48, 52, 51
• Power Play: 14.6%, 19.1%, 21.7%
• Penalty Kill: 82.8%, 73.0%, 86.3%

Defensively, the Flyers are off to their best start — a credit Carter Hart, Martin Jones and improved defensive play. But the drop-off in goals scored is dramatic. And while the penalty kill has rebounded nicely after struggling all of last season, the power play has been on a steady decline.

Leading Scorers Through 18 Games

• 2021-22: Claude Giroux (7-9-16), Sean Couturier (5-8-13), Derick Brassard (4-7-11)
• 2020-21: James van Riemsdyk (10-15-25), Joel Farabee (8-9-17), Kevin Hayes (1-13-14)
• 2019-20: Travis Konecny (8-11-19), Oskar Lindblom (8-6-14), Claude Giroux (5-8-13)

Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier have chipped in as well or a bit better this year than they have in the previous two seasons. Brassard, now injured, has been a valuable addition, and Cam Atkinson (7-3-10) has basically replaced the points of the player he was traded for, Jakub Voracek.

Around FPC

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PODCAST: Full Press NHL Podcast Ep 11: Are The Penguins Really For Sale? Senators Talk w/ Murray Pam

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Where Have The Goals Gone?

But the key players who helped support the offense over the past two seasons have cooled off. So far this year:

• James van Riemsdyk: 2-4-6, shooting percentage 4.9%
• Joel Farabee: 5-3-8, shooting percentage 16.7%
• Kevin Hayes: 1-1-2, shooting percentage 16.7%
• Travis Konecny: 5-5-10, shooting percentage 8.6%
• Oskar Lindblom: 0-1-1, shooting percentage 0.0%

Shooting percentage numbers suggest that some of this issue is bad luck. Van Riemsdyk has connected on 11.4% of his shots over his career, and was 12.9% last season. He also had 10 power-play goals last year, but just one so far this season.

JVR does most of his damage within a few feet of the net. We haven’t see the Flyers get pucks into the slot area and create the kind of mayhem that he needs to be successful.

Lindblom, of course, has gone even colder. He’s a career 10.9% shooter. Last season, he connected on 13.9% of his shots, tallying eight goals after returning from his treatment for Ewing’s sarcoma. Lindblom’s ice time is up by nearly a minute a game from last season, and is on par with his 2018-19 season, when he posted 17 goals. But he’s only shooting about half as much. His quandary appears to be a result of bad luck, which has now bred low confidence.

Konecny’s production could also improve with a little luck. In his breakout year, he connected for 24 goals, with 17% of his shots converting. Last season, he managed 11 goals, averaging two shots a game and connecting 11% of the time. This year, he’s getting shots on net at a higher volume than ever before, averaging 3.2 shots per game.

If he’s maintaining the quality level of his shots, he should eventually start to see more pucks going in the net.

Up Next

Home from Florida with just one of a possible four points, the Flyers’ next four games are all crucial four-point contests against Metro Division rivals.

After escaping Raleigh with a 2-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes two weeks ago, the Flyers host the Canes for a Black Friday matinee (3:30 p.m. ET). Then, they’ll hit the road to face the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, return home for a game against the New York Islanders on Tuesday, and open the month of December against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday.