The Benefits of a Brock Boeser Injury

The Vancouver Canucks played a very mediocre game for two-thirds of Sunday night against the Vegas Golden Knights. It was one they absolutely had to win, and they looked like it for all of twenty minutes. Just to cap off the evening, Brock Boeser got injured by a misplaced Elias Pettersson check. For the rematch, the team – without Boeser, Quinn Hughes, Tucker Poolman, or Nils Höglander – went to Vegas and won convincingly 5-1. What this post is not about is the Canucks being better without those players, because that’s a lie. What it is about is one of those players, and how it’s not such a bad thing that they won without him.

A Brock Boeser Injury? Bingo!

Brock Boeser is a very good player. He is absolutely a first-line NHL winger. His shot is ridiculous. If you need one Canuck to score while standing in front of a ready-positioned goalie five times in ten shots, he’s your pick. Boeser can pass as well as most and can find players through sticks. While he’s not particularly good defensively, he has worked on that part of his game. His board work is also surprisingly good. And every few games he does that magic trick Brett Hull did so well: making the other team forget he’s on the ice until suddenly there’s an empty space in front of the net and he’s just… there. It’s frankly a little disturbing, but fans of the team will take it. Boeser has also, frustratingly, never quite lived up to his abilities. His 29-goal rookie season remains a personal best. That he did it in just 62 games highlights his abilities. Unfortunately, his year was cut short by a back injury. Cue ominous music.

Just Wait ‘Til Next Year (Part IV)!

Obviously, when you see a player get nearly one goal every two games, that’s an easy projection. It’s also likely wrong, but fans will be fans. He reached 26 goals the next year, followed by 16, 23, and this year’s 19 in the three seasons after. At a quick glance, that’s not great results. But bear in mind two of those seasons were COVID-truncated ones. The 2019-20 season lasted 70-ish games, and the 2020-21 season just 56. That 2020-21 season is arguably his best as a scorer, on pace for around 35 goals and leading the team in points. It’s also the only one in which he’s played every game. This Brock Boeser injury habit is turning into a simple fact of life for the Canucks. It’s not like they have a common theme, either. Back, ribs, groin, hand, COVID-19, “undisclosed” and whatever the team decides to call his current damage are all on his record. Maybe it would be different if he had a wonky shoulder that kept popping out, but this roulette wheel of injuries is hard to know how to deal with.

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Always Look on the Bright Side (Not You, Brock)

With Tyler Motte traded away, Boeser is the one big free agent decision general manager Patrik Allvin has this offseason. And it really is a major decision, given the team’s needs. That he has the ability to score is undeniable. To go with the Canucks need scoring too. Given the condition of the team’s blue line, scoring their way out of trouble might be their best option right now. But they also need to clear cap space, and there lies the rub. Boeser is on an expiring deal that pays him a whopping $7.5 million in his final season. To qualify him – thus hanging on to his rights – the team needs to offer the same number. That’s a whole lot for a team that needs its options available. This Brock Boeser injury comes at, weirdly enough, the right time. Fans have pretty much accepted the team won’t reach the playoffs (finally). Management has had enough time to evaluate his worth to the team. And now they can see how the team does without him for a dozen(-ish) games. They have some information to make a decision on Boeser and his future with the team.

Not What You’re Thinking

While there is talk of trading him, Brock Boeser’s value is probably as low as it’s ever been. He’s having a down year in his boxcar stats – 19 goals, 19 assists in 64 games – even as his possession numbers remain high. He’s also a young guy, just turning 25 in February. To compare years, he’s currently eighth overall in scoring for his draft year, and tenth in total points. On the other hand, his qualifying offer isn’t exactly a secret, which will make teams question his fit. And, of course, this latest in a yearly visit to the injury ward. Whether it’s long-term or not is almost irrelevant at this point. Any team trading for Brock Boeser scoring and possession and play driving is also trading for the Brock Boeser injury history and massive qualifying offer.* Trading Boeser now might not be a “pennies on the dollar” deal, but it won’t be under the best of conditions.

Resigned to Re-Signing

His trade value is low, his team usefulness is high, and his future is a question mark. Unless someone comes in with a deal they can’t refuse, right now the most likely option is working out a deal. And that doesn’t mean handing him $7.5 million. It’s not common, but when a player wants to stay with a team he could reach an agreement. The team doesn’t make him a qualifying offer when the contract expires and then he signs as a free agent. This seems like it’s a high risk for the team as the player would be within his rights to simply take his free-agent self anywhere else. But if there was another team willing to pay the full rate, they would have tried to make a trade in the first place. The Canucks have a little room for next year. The salary cap is going up by a million dollars and the ridiculous Roberto Luongo recapture penalty is finally expiring. A different player may get moved, with both the Tyler Myers and Tanner Pearson deals moving from full No-Trade clauses to limited ones. Or maybe the team finally pulls the trigger on a J.T. Miller deal. Boeser is a very good player whose age fits in with team projections. Brock Boeser’s injury, accidental though it was, puts a spotlight on just how often it happens. Never mind reaching 40 goals, he might never reach 70 games in a season. And that’s going to bring down his price.   *Thanks a LOT, CapFriendly!