Antler Analysis: Goaltending, Barron, & Vesalainen

We’re going to learn a lot about the Manitoba Moose and the legitimacy of their Calder Cup aspirations during the team’s final seven regular-season games.

While it’ll be interesting to see what their lineup looks like once some of their big guns — such as Declan Chisholm, Kristian Reichel, and even Greg Meireles — return from injury, the most interesting storyline lies in Manitoba’s crease. Right now, the Winnipeg Jets’ AHL affiliate has a .890 Team SV%, the sixth worst figure in the league. Over the last five Calder Cup Playoffs, the average SV% of the 10 teams that made the Finals was .921. To even really consider Manitoba a viable contender, they’re going to need better goaltending going forward.

Now, as suspect as Manitoba’s goaltending has been, all hope shouldn’t be lost.

For example, subtract Arvid Holm‘s 23 games from the equation, and Manitoba’s SV% creeps closer to below league average (.896). It’s also important to note that Manitoba is one of the best defensive teams in the AHL. Not only do they allow the least amount of shots against per game (25.77), but at even-strength, they surrender just 10.89 Scoring Chances (4th) and 2.06 expected goals against (2nd) per game, according to InStat. Also, Mikhail Berdin is now back from a lower-body injury that had been nagging at him for quite some time. His April 3 start against the Toronto Marlies was his first since March 11.

“I was working hard when I wasn’t playing. I practiced a lot and I think I’m in the best shape [of] the season, right now,” Berdin told reporters after stopping 28 of the Marlies’ 31 shots two Sundays ago. 

Then there’s Evan Cormier, who overall has proven to be serviceable at this level. So naturally, it would appear that the clear solution is to just demote Holm and run with Berdin and Cormier going forward. Granted, it’s no slam dunk that either (or both) of the goalies sustain their respective outputs.

But ultimately, Berdin is the real wild card in all of this.

The 24-year-old Russian netminder has, by far, the most upside of any goalie on the roster. His raw skill is unmatched. However, with his production plummeting since the start of last season, there’s no sugar-coating the fact that his stock is nowhere near where it once was.

This year in particular has been quite the roller coaster for Berdin.

After recording a .893 SV% through his first 12 games of the season — plus an abysmal Even-Strength SV% of .887 through that span — Berdin has posted a .907 SV% over his last 16 games. While his numbers have improved, Berdin hasn’t really been able to develop into a starter’s (or even tandem) rhythm in the second half of the season.

He still has a lot to prove.

“I have a fire in my eyes,” he said when discussing his mentality now that he’s returned.

Obviously, a strong showing in the playoffs could do wonders in steering Berdin’s development back on track. But, if he ever wants a real shot at making the jump to the big leagues someday, he has to reign in the recklessness of his game. He’s got to get better at managing his energy levels — both mentally and physically — during games.

“When he’s got too much energy, the mistakes are coming when he plays the puck,” Moose assistant coach Eric Dubois explained. 

The Jets organization has given Berdin a lot of leash with regards to playing the puck. They’ve embraced his passing skills; he’s good at it and opposing teams account for it.

“But lots of teams,” Berdin noted. “They stop dumping [the] puck against me. They know I’m good at this and it’s like harder right now to get the puck.”

When he can get a quick touch on the puck and dish it out to the defenceman shortly thereafter, Berdin gives the Moose’s defenceman a huge advantage in the defensive zone. But when he’s jittery and eager to jump on a loose puck just for the sake of it, that’s where it becomes a head-scratcher.

A prime example of a potentially costly gaffe can be seen below, which came at the tail-end of Manitoba’s 7-2 blowout win over the Rockford IceHogs on March 3.

During the TV timeout immediately thereafter, Dubois was not pleased with Berdin.

After the game, Dubois said he told Berdin to trust his defencemen.

“I think sometimes he’s bored a little bit if he doesn’t get [many shots against],” Dubois told Moose TV. “Even if it’s 6-2 — even if you’re bored — you still have to play the right way.”

Now more than ever, Berdin’s decision-making processes (and lack thereof, at times) is at the forefront.

At its core, what this boils down to is Berdin allocating so much energy into things that take away from his primary — if not sole — responsibility as a goaltender. For instance, the Marlies were up in his grill earlier in April,  knowing they could get a rise out of him. Berdin took the bait a couple of times.

“When he does something like that and then [he] forgets to focus on something else — you’re not as square, you’re not as ready for the next shot,” Dubois said. 

Obviously, the main concern here is Berdin being ready to field shots. That’s his job, after all.

Barron Poised for Playoff Breakout

Once the Moose’s postseason gets underway, watch out for Morgan Barron.

Three and a half weeks since he was acquired in the Andrew Copp deal, Barron’s stock has soared while on recall with the Jets. He fared well in a bottom-six role through his first five NHL games with Winnipeg, which earned him an audition in the top-six on Monday. And he made the most of it.

Morgan Barron (WPG36) had a terrific game in WPG's 4-2 win over MTL last night.

The Haligonian rookie had a goal and an assist with a 62% xGF% at 5v5.

Here are his most notable puck touches and plays from last night. #GoJetsGo #NHLPotN pic.twitter.com/5edOJckBn2

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) April 12, 2022

Given that he had just two points through five games with the Moose, Barron’s showing on a line with Paul Statsny and Nikolaj Ehlers may have appeared to come out of the woodwork. But that is not the case. Mind you, there was a bit of an adjustment period right off the bat.

“The trade was kind of a shock and it was hard for him to get over that for a couple of days,” Manitoba head coach Mark Morrison told Full Press Coverageafter the Moose’s practice on Tuesday. “But every game, he got a little bit better.”

During his last two games with the Moose, he really started to shine.

While the imposing 6’4″ power forward is great on faceoffs and plays a sound 200-foot game, his makeup isn’t one of a traditional bottom-six plug, per se. He’s got some offensive touch and most notably, a powerful skating stride to go along with his big frame.

“If that guy is coming down the middle lane driving at you, there’s not a ton of guys that are able to handle that,” said Jeff Malott, who played with Barron at Cornell University.

His AHL point totals (17 points in 30 games) aren’t shiny, but his underlying numbers are strong.

Barron has been snake bitten at even-strength this season, although his high volume of slot chances is promising.

“He does a good job of getting to the slot, and when he’s in there, he’s hard to move,” said Cole Maier, who played against Barron in the NCAA. “I’m sure there’s more to come from him.” 

With an added bit of confidence by way of getting top-six minutes in the NHL, Barron looks like a legitimate threat to become a top-end offensive contributor for Manitoba.

Vesalainen Struggling, But Slowly ‘Coming Around’

I’m not sure there’s a player on Manitoba’s roster with more to prove than Kristian Vesalainen.

It makes his pedestrian performance through his last eight games all the more alarming. Though, Coach Morrison made a point of saying he thought the 2017 first-round pick had been on the upswing as of late.

“I feel like his last two games have been his best games,” said Morrison. “His compete levels have gone up since day one, and it’s been a transition for him, too. He comes from the NHL and it’s a bit of a…he looks at it as a bit of a demotion, as everybody would. And now, I think he’s coming around.” 

Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact he’s recorded just two points in 11 AHL games this season, with just one point through these last eight games. According to InStat, at even-strength, he’s averaging less than one shot on goal per game. The same can be said for scoring chances, too. He is also averaging just over 12 minutes of ice time per game.

It sort of feels like this is the end of the line for Vesalainen, who before being sent down recorded just three points in 53 NHL games this year. It’d be wishful thinking to expect him to be a key offensive contributor from here on out.

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Mantioba faces off against the Rockford IceHogs this Saturday & Sunday afternoon at 2pm CDT.