Maple Leafs Have Better Record Than Bolts, But Toronto Is The Underdog In Round One

Despite having a better record entering the postseason, the Maple Leafs are the clear underdog in their matchup with the Lightning.

The NHL’s regular season is over for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and their first-round playoff opponents are the defending, back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Having won four more games than the Bolts this year, the Leafs have home-ice advantage in the series. But the truth is, Tampa Bay is going to be the favorite.

Now, before you wig out and bombard me with angry replies, Leafs’ fans, rest assured that the Lightning would be the favorite no matter whom they play. You don’t win two championships in a row and not get the benefit of the doubt as a group. It’s just that Toronto has the unfortunate luck to be the first team to attempt to put an end to Tampa’s dominance, and people aren’t going to tend to believe they can do it until they see it.

In many regards, the Leafs match up well against the Lightning: Toronto has a better goals-for-per-game average (3.80) than Tampa Bay (3.48), and the Buds’ special teams (27.3 percent power play, 82.1 percent penalty kill) are better than those of the Bolts (23.9 percent on the PP, 80.6 percent on the PK). The Leafs also have the best skater of the series in superstar and Hart Trophy frontrunner Auston Matthews, and their depth at both forward and on defense is similar to the Lightning.

But here’s what makes the Leafs the underdog against Tampa (and again, what would make any other team in the Eastern Conference the underdog against the Bolts): they’ve got the best goalie in the series in star Andrei Vasilevskiy – a workhorse whose numbers have dipped a little since last season, but who still posted a 2.49 goals-against average and .916 save percentage in 63 appearances this year. This is a guy who won a Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP. At 27 years old, Vasilevskiy is in his prime, and he’s going to make producing offense an incredibly difficult task for Toronto.

Tampa Bay also has the best defenseman of the series in Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman. The 31-year-old Swede also has a Conn Smythe Trophy to his credit, and he’s amassed a career-high in goals (20), assists (65) and points (85), while averaging a team-best 25:05 of ice time per game this season. When Hedman and Vasilevskiy are on the ice together, the Lightning can lock down anyone, Toronto included.

Is this to guarantee a Lightning win over the Leafs? Of course not. Toronto may get a banner performance in net from Jack Campbell. Their defense may position itself well against Tampa’s offensive attack. Trade deadline addition Mark Giordano and a fully-healthy Jake Muzzin may give Toronto an advantage over the Bolts’ group of blueliners. Playoff rookies Michael Bunting (if he’s healthy), Nick Abrusseze, Colin Blackwell, Timothy Liljegren, and Ilya Lyubushkin may thrive in their first post-season action. Veterans Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds, and Kyle Clifford may chip in moments of clutch play.

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But for every element of positivity for Toronto, there’s an equal element of positivity for Tampa Bay. The Leafs have Matthews and fellow superstar Mitch Marner; the Lightning have star snipers Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. The Leafs have impressive secondary scoring from center John Tavares and winger William Nylander; the Lightning have impressive secondary scoring from Brayden Point and Alex Killorn.

If you can assure yourself of anything, it’s that this Leafs/Lightning series is going to be a long one. It’s difficult to see either side with a sweep win. We’ll see speed and skill in abundance, and ultimately, the difference between moving on to the second round, and going home for the summer, will come down to a handful of small-but-crucial moments.

It’s not fun for Leafs fans to consider their team an underdog, but in this case, this year, it’s true. People believe Toronto take the next competitive step as a group in the playoffs, but they won’t expect it until they see it.