Murray, Samsonov Are Huge Gambles That Could Cost Leafs GM Dubas His Job

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a notable splash on the first day of unrestricted free agency Wednesday, but by the end of the day, it was clear to all they were going to be gambling their 2022-23 season on a pair of goalies with big-time question marks.

Their first goalie acquisition in this current off-season was a trade with their provincial rivals in Ottawa that saw veteran (and two-time Stanley Cup-winner) Matt Murray in exchange for future considerations. Toronto also got a third-round pick in the 2023 draft and a seventh-rounder in 2024 from the Senators, who retained 25 percent of Murray’s $6.25 million annual salary in the two years remaining on his contract. In essence, it was a salary dump by Ottawa, and a huge risk for the Leafs.

It’s true Murray has a solid pedigree, but in recent years, he’s struggled to (a) stay healthy, dealing with concussions and other body woes; and (b) to play well consistently, as made clear by his inability to post a goals-against average lower than the 3.00 level for the past two seasons. At age 28, Murray is accomplished, but a real question mark going ahead.

Later on in the first day of unrestricted free agency Wednesday, Leafs GM Kyle Dubas signed UFA netminder Ilya Samsonov to a one-year, $1.8-million contract. The key statistics for the 25-year-old former Washington Capitals goalie got progressively worse in his first three seasons in the NHL, bottoming out to the point he posted career worsts in G.A.A. (3.02) and save percentage (.896) last season. However, Dubas and Leafs president Brendan Shanahan believe playing behind a better defense corps in Toronto will result in better performances from Samsonov and Murray.

A Murray/Samsonov isn’t going to give opposing teams a case of the shakes at the beginning of the season, but given that both goalies aren’t yet in their thirties, there is time for them to put their poor play in the past. But don’t kid yourself – both new Leafs goalies are going to be under the watchful eye of Toronto fans and media each and every time they set foot on the ice, and while they may thrive under that pressure, they may crumble spectacularly, the way veteran Petr Mrazek did in his first and only catastrophic campaign with the Leafs in 2021-22.

If both Murray and Samsonov struggle this coming year, Dubas won’t have much, if any salary cap space to go out and acquire some in-season help between the pipes. Any trade will have to be a money-in, money-out transaction, and that will almost assuredly hurt the Leafs in one area or another. It won’t be a pretty picture for Leafs management, and Leafs fan will lash out in large numbers at the lack of success at arguably the most important decision in hockey.

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They’re not wrong to do so. As long as Dubas has been in charge, he’s had no long-term success with a netminder that would deliver Toronto deep into the playoffs. Frederik Andersen was an above-average regular-season performer who never showed the ability to steal games they way the NHL’s top goalies do. Jack Campbell thrived in short spurts, but had a hard time health-wise, and regressed to the mean in the long-term. None of the goalies drafted under Dubas’ tenure have risen through the minor leagues to establish themselves as NHL-worthy. It’s a constant parade of experiments with goalies that haven’t panned out to management’s expectations.

Murray and Samsonov are being brought in to try and end that carousel. And, playing in front of a defense corps that includes elite-level talent like Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie and above-average competitors like Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren, and Rasmus Sandin, Murray and Sandin don’t have any excuses for not playing well. The Colorado Avalanche won a Cup with non-superstar Darcy Kuemper, and the Avs have proven a superb offense-generating team can power its way to a Cup win so long as their netminder hasn’t been abysmal.

That’s the gamble Dubas is taking with his new netminders. It may not pan out for Dubas, and if it doesn`t, he may lose his job because of it. But if it does turn out to give Toronto a deep playoff run, Murray and/or Samsonov will be rewarded for it with longer-term contract extensions. And Leafs fans will be happy to see them paid for solid performance.