What Do The Winnipeg Jets Have In David Gustafsson?

Nelson Nogier will never forget the first time he met David Gustafsson.

It was early February 2020. Gustafsson, who just turned 20, joined the Manitoba Moose after he finished rehabbing an injury from World Juniors.

“I remember thinking, ‘Holy smokes, what a shy young kid,'” Nogier said in a telephone conversation with Full Press Coverage last week.

But once he stepped onto the ice with the Manitoba Moose, the 6’2″ centre looked far from timid.

“I was blown away,” Nogier recounts. “After a few weeks, I finally asked someone, ‘How old is this guy?’ I didn’t realize how young he was. I thought he was like 22, maybe 23 years old. Not only because he carried himself off the ice, but also because of his attributes as a player on the ice.”

Mind you, Gustafsson isn’t flashy. He’s not a speedy skater, nor does he exhibit much finesse. But, he’s a workhorse who’s technically sound and responsible in all three zones. He’s a hard player to defend, whether you’re facing off against him in a one-on-one battle or trying to disrupt his handle on the puck. Physical attributes aside, the Winnipeg Jets’ 2018 second-round pick has long been renowned for his maturity and cerebral nature.

“For his age — at [the AHL] level — what he does with the puck, how he thinks [about] the game; he’s like a 30-year-old guy,” Moose forward Kristian Reichel explained after one of Manitoba’s games this past December.

At 19, Gustafsson made the Jets roster out of training camp.

He played in 22 of Winnipeg’s first 32 games of the 2019-20 season before joining Team Sweden for World Juniors. Since then, he’s played in just six NHL games. Despite stretches throughout the past three years where Gustafsson’s style of play — namely his defense, penalty kill, and faceoff ability — was exactly what they needed, Winnipeg opted to have the now 22-year-old play with the Moose instead of in their lineup.

Todd Woodcroft, a former Jets assistant coach, thinks Winnipeg’s development plan for Gustafsson has paid off.

“I know he’s ready for the next step here. He’s evolved,” Woodcroft told Full Press Coverage in a late-August telephone conversation. “He has baked in the American Hockey League for a long time, and it’s smart to do with a player like him.”

A smart thing, indeed.

Naturally when someone bursts onto the scene like Gustafsson did, only to spend the next few years in the minors, the latter can oftentimes be seen as evidence of a player’s decline. That wasn’t the case with ‘Gus Bus,’ though. Whether or not David Gustafsson would become an NHL player wasn’t really up for discussion. Rather, the question was more so about what type of player he could become for the Jets.

Woodcroft believes Gustafsson can be an important piece for the Jets. He sees shades of Mikko Koivu and Adam Lowry in him.

“Those are big centres that are cerebral and can process things before they happen. David has that. He’s a smart player,” Woodcroft explained.

Given how he’s progressed, Gustafsson appears poised to evolve into a much more impactful NHL player than he was the first time around. A closer look at his last three pro seasons peels back the curtain as to why.

2019-20 Season

During Gustafsson’s first pro season, then-Jets head coach Paul Maurice seldom had 19-year-olds in his bottom six. But Gustafsson left an impression on him. 

“He just does too many right things for you not to notice,” Maurice told reporters late in training camp after the young Swede avoided another round of cuts.

The thing is, Gustafsson is a rare breed. His defensive abilities are the foundation of his game.

During the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, he was a valued defensive specialist for his SHL team (HV71) as a teenager. Whenever he moves up a level, he’s most confident in his two-way ability (contrary to most teenaged forwards). His polished 200-foot game is a big reason why he didn’t look like a fish out of water during training camp that year.

As training camp progressed, Woodcroft said the Jets coaching staff talked openly about David being a natural replacement for players that would inevitably depart in the not-so-distant future. Once the season began, their admiration for Gustafsson only grew as he anchored Winnipeg’s fourth line. While averaging 6:10 TOI/GP — alongside the likes of Joona Luoto, Logan Shaw, and Gabriel Bourque – Gustafsson stuck to the Jets’ script. He adhered to the chip and chase style the Jets fourth line ran while winning 54% of his faceoffs to boot.

With such scarce NHL minutes, it wasn’t surprising that Winnipeg made him available for World Juniors. During the tournament, Gustafsson recorded four points in seven games, posting tournament highs in faceoff percentage (71%) and faceoffs taken (103). It made sense that after a strong showing against his peers, the Jets sent Gustafsson to the AHL.

“He needed to get minutes and heavy minutes,” Woodcroft recounted.

Alas, we arrive at where this very article began: Gustafsson’s first AHL stint. Nogier, a veteran of 255 AHL games, pointed out that players don’t always handle being sent down to the minors as well as Gustafsson did.

“Players can handle it one of two ways,” Nogier explained. “They can kinda pout and whine about it, or they can realize, ‘Okay. I’ve been sent down here for a reason. What’s that reason? What do I need to work on?’ David was really good at acknowledging that and handling that the right way. He came down, was an incredible teammate, and not only did he work hard in practice and in games, but he was always putting in extra time with [assistant coach] Marty Johnston.”

It wasn’t just his approach off the ice that was impressive.

Gustafsson was a difference maker in 13 games with the Moose that season. He produced seven points — all of which came in his final seven games — while recording a team-high 61.5 CF% (+12.6 CF rel) in 18:43 TOI/GP. He had a profound impact on a Moose team that was at the bottom of the league’s standings.

“I remember thinking that it’s only a matter of time before this kid develops into a full-time NHL player,” Nogier reflected.

One could look at Gustafsson’s development as a case of a defensive forward playing in the AHL to develop more offensive ability. But Nogier disagrees.

“It’s one thing to say that for a player who was never gifted offensively. It’s another thing to say that for a player who has the ability to be an offensive player,” Nogier said.

Mind you, in his first two SHL seasons, Gustafsson recorded 0.22 Even Strength Primary Points per game, placing him in the 80th percentile of all U-21 players from the past 15 seasons.

2020-2021 Season

Throughout this season, which he split between Tingsryds AIF (HockeyAllsvenskan) and the Moose, Gustafsson was deployed as a number one centre. Not only a go-to guy defensively, but offensively too.

In the fall of 2020, he played with Tingsryds as he awaited for the NHL/AHL season to begin. In 16 games, Gustafsson recorded 1.06 points per game — first among U-21 players in that league — and a 56.8 CF% in 19:15 TOI/GP. It did wonders for his offensive confidence, and he had the chance to showcase his most underrated skill: his shot.

“I’m surprised he doesn’t score more, given how good that release is,” Nogier said.

Woodcroft says that when Gustafsson was with the Jets, he was constantly working on his shot before or after practices.

“His first NHL goal directly correlated [with] the work he was putting in on the ice. He must have shot that shot, without exaggeration, 500 times after morning skates or practices — just like that, coming downhill on it,” Woodcroft said.

Once the AHL got up and running, he didn’t skip a beat.

In 22 AHL games that year, Gustafsson recorded 19 points and averaged 20:30 TOI/GP, playing key roles at even-strength and both special teams units. At the end of the year, Manitoba named him their team MVP. Then-Moose head coach Pascal Vincent praised Gustafsson’s progression in an interview with Full Press Coverage back in April 2021.
“It’s an even bigger question mark right now: what is going to be his ceiling? Because he’s doing stuff that I didn’t anticipate from him.”<

In that same interview, Vincent spelled out the Jets’ long-term goal with Gustafsson. He said the organization would like to think he can become a dominant defensive forward who can also produce some offence.

“Gus, he’s going to be a Jet, and it’s just a matter of time. We all agree on this one,” Vincent said. “Now it’s just [about] playing minutes and repetition and creating that confidence [so] when he gets there, he’s not just a defensive player – [he] can also contribute offensively to the team.”

2021-2022 Season

It wasn’t all that surprising that Gustafsson was with the Moose again last year.

Not to discredit all his progress made the year before, but Taxi Squads diluted the AHL’s quality of talent during the 2020-2021 season. Plus, before last season, Gustafsson had played in just 35 AHL games over a 19-month span. That wasn’t ideal for a player like him, whose development hinged on getting lots of opportunities in the minors.

Ultimately, the patient approach was once again the right approach to Gustafsson’s development.

Gustafsson, whose 18:50 TOI/GP was the most of any Moose forward, was one of the AHL’s best shutdown centres through 47 games. Once again, he was a focal point of the penalty kill and the power play, establishing himself as a legitimate shooting threat on the latter. Gustafsson was also named an assistant captain at just 21 years old.

“I can’t say enough about him,” Manitoba head coach Mark Morrison said back in December. “You put him in all situations, and he’s the backbone and the strength of our team there.”

While the graph above may not show it, Gustafsson’s offensive game really progressed. He fared well in several different capacities, be it spotting Cole Perfetti on his wing or playing a cycle-heavy game alongside Jeff Malott.

“If I want to play in the NHL, I’ve got to work on every part of my game, and I feel like the offensive game was the thing I had to work on this year,” Gustafsson told Full Press Coverage at the Moose’s end of year media availability.

But above all else, the most encouraging development was how he produced offence last season, particularly at even strength. While Gustafsson produced shiny point totals during the 2020-2021 campaign, he did so in an unsustainable fashion, producing a low volume of 5-on-5 Scoring Chances and Slot Shots. However, during the 2021-2022 season, he nearly doubled both his Scoring Chance and Slot Shot output.

David Gustafsson’s AHL High Danger Opportunities
Stat	2020-2021 (22 GP)	2021-2022 (47 GP)
5v5 Slot Shots/GP	0.45	0.81
5v5 Scoring Chances/GP	0.59	1.04

Ultimately, getting plenty of opportunities to refine translatable skills (at a lower level than the NHL) is what development in the AHL is all about.

“What that does, is it gives him confidence,”Woodcroft explained.“After three years, he can now get to the slot at the [AHL] level. He’s able to find that space. Why? Because of experience. If he was playing in the NHL all that time – in and out of the lineup, and he’s playing every third game or six minutes a night when getting into the lineup – that [offensive] confidence probably isn’t there. You get confidence via the currency coaches have, which is ice time.” 

After 82 AHL games, Gustafsson procured the necessary mileage. It’s time to give him an extended look in a Jets uniform.

“You can only do certain things in the AHL for so long before you have to be given an opportunity with the big club,” Nogier concluded.

—

Stats via InStat