The 2022-23 NHL regular season is drawing closer, and with it, the narratives surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs will come into clearer focus. But if there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s that a large part of the pressure on the organization will be centered around the Buds’ core of elite forwards. There is a caveat, of course; coming off of an astonishing regular season that saw him win the Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player – and after reaching the 60-goal plateau for the first time in his professional career – Matthews doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone.
Similarly, Matthews’ linemate, winger Mitch Marner, posted a career-best 35 goals and 97 points in 72 games, and underscored his status as one of the best young players in the sport; if he’d have played a full season, Marner, like Matthews, would’ve reached the 100-point mark for the first time as an NHLer, and he too doesn’t have to prove anything to anybody – at least, as far as the regular-season goes.
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That said, it’s the other two forwards in Toronto’s lineup – as well as the bottom three forward lines – that are going to undergo intense scrutiny, fair or not. And the heat of the spotlight starts with stars John Tavares and William Nylander.
Now, there’s plenty of evidence both Nylander and Tavares weather more than their share of unfair criticism. Tavares has been a point-per-game player for virtually the entirety of his 13-year NHL career, and last season, in 79 games, he generated 49 assists – one fewer helper than his career-high – and 76 points. Night after night, he is one of Toronto’s hardest players on the puck, and his consistency on offense sets a high bar for much of the team. His $11-million-per-season salary sets him up for criticism his numbers should be higher, but with Matthews and Marner leading the way, the Leafs don’t need Tavares to challenge for the Art Ross Trophy as the game’s best point-producer. They just need quality minutes for him, a solid defensive work ethic, and leadership by example.
Nylander, meanwhile, is five years younger than Tavares, and at times last season, the Swedish winger was dropped to the Leafs’ third line. That didn’t stop Nylander from posting career highs in goals (34), assists (46) and points (80) in 81 games. He and Tavares averaged essentially the same amount of ice time – 18 minutes a night – and Nylander delivered what was asked of him in return for the relative bargain of $6.9 million per season. The difference between Nylander and Tavares is the term of their contracts, with Nylander under team control for this coming season and the following season, and Tavares locked up through the 2024-25 campaign.
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Certainly, there would be many suitors lining up to bid on Nylander’s services if Leafs GM Kyle Dubas made him available, but it’s highly unlikely that will happen, absent some team-wide funk that includes Nylander’s performance. Now, if Toronto fails to get out of the first round of the 2023 post-season, all bets are off, and Tavares’ salary makes him much more difficult to move than Nylander. But the search for more balance up front could make Nylander a trade block asset. And Nylander’s lack of a no-trade clause makes him vulnerable to a move in a way the Leafs’ top three other forwards are not.
To be sure, Toronto has had more change in their bottom-six group of forwards this off-season, with veteran winger Calle Jarnkrok coming in to play on the third line, and former Colorado forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel and forward Adam Gaudette signed to shore up the fourth line. Dubas needs more help from his bottom-six forwards, but make no mistake – the bulk of the responsibility falls on the Leafs’ top-two lines to power the team’s engine and help them succeed when games matter most.
If that doesn’t happen, there will be bigger changes on the horizon for Toronto next off-season, and Nylander likely will be the guy to pay the price by moving elsewhere. Again, it’s not fair to blame him for any shortcomings – the Leafs’ goaltending also will be a massive factor in their bottom line – but when it comes to their core-four forwards group, Nylander will be the asset most likely to bear the brunt of the fury that will assuredly follow another letdown.
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You write ” His $11-million-per-season salary sets him up for criticism his numbers should be higher”
That’s only part of it. 91 never reminds me Clark Gilmour or Sundin and as such never seems to be a difference maker like Stamkos, Landeskog or either of the Tkachuk bros.
The point is we deserve a Captain that wins the tough close games, Mathews is that captain. 91’s contract more than any of the top 4 prevents Dubas from acquiring the elite goalie or Dman that makes the difference in a Stanley Cup run.
The gamble on Murray would not have been necessary if the boy genius had balanced the cap by not paying all that money to 4 players.
91 has to do more than win faceoffs. For me he’s too old and too slow and making way too much money.
I ready for the criticism push back from Tavares lovers, and their attack on anyone who dares show dissent.
Sadly dissent is not disloyalty.
So in the humble opinion of this long time season ticket holder who puts his money where his mouth is, its simply thats the way I see it.
Just saying.
Agree with this comment. Tavares I believe is actually getting closer to 12 mill per season. I think it is 11.9 but I may be wrong. Either way he gets close to McDavid money and he certainly is no where near McDavid’s talent. He gets slower each year and in no way resembles Leaf captains of old like Wendl Clark, Dougie Gilmour, Sundin etc etc. Tavares doesn t come across as clutch like our old Captains. Nylander should not be included in this criticism as he makes a lot less than the top 3. Nylander only makes 6.9 mill per compared to Tavares well over 11 mill per and Matthews and Marner at over 10 mill per each. Yet Nylander finished ahead of Tavares in regular season scoring only finishing behind Matthews and Marner. Nylander also has 14 points in his last 15 playoff games. That is the type of production expected from Tavares which the Leafs do not get. Nylander is a bargain at his salary..
Author is wrong about Nylander. What exactly does he have to prove when he finished 3rd for regular season scoring on the team only behind Matthews and Marner. They both get over 10 mill per season where as Nylander only gets 6.9 mill per season and the author thinks he still has to prove himself ?? Not only that but Nylander also has 14 points in his last 15 playoff games = clutch. Nylander has nothing to prove and no pressure on him at all. He just has to continue his progression into a super star then he will be making 10 mill per season.