There Are Many Reasons For Optimism For New-Look Leafs Lineup

As the Toronto Maple Leafs kick off their 2022-23 training camp, much was being made of news that team president Brendan Shanahan had not offered a contract extension to GM Kyle Dubas. That means Dubas has this season, and likely only this season, to put together a team that can, at the very least, make it beyond the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs next spring. And while there are reasons to be skeptical the Buds can get beyond their now-legendary first-round struggles, there also are reasons for optimism that, at long last, this will be the year the franchise takes a competitive step forward.

The main reason for skepticism is also one of the main reasons for optimism: the Leafs’ goaltending. Dubas chose not to bite on a lengthy contract extension for veteran starter Jack Campbell, instead choosing a rebound project in Matt Murray, and a young-ish secondary option in Ilya Samsonov. All Toronto needs is one of the two netminders to give them even average goaltending, and let their considerably potent offense do the heavy lifting that leads to as many wins (50) as the Leafs had last year.

Dubas & Co. don’t need a Vezina Trophy-worthy performance from Murray or Samsonov; clearly, Toronto brass believes in the system that Colorado utilized to win a Cup last year – a system that places the bulk of the expectation not on goalies, but on the forwards and defense. That’s the biggest gamble the Leafs are making this season, and to argue it’s going to fail is as arrogant and wrong as it is to suggest it’s absolutely going to pan out in Toronto’s favor.

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But beyond the goaltending, the Leafs are stacked at forward and on the blueline this season. Let’s look at the latter area first: when savvy veteran and former Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano selflessly agreed to an $800,000-per-season, two-year contract, he gave Dubas much more salary cap flexibility with which to operate. And, regardless of how the situation with restricted free agent Rasmus Sandin turns out, Toronto now has a very solid top-six on the back end, with veteran depth in league-minimum signees Jordie Benn and Victor Mete waiting to step in if needed. Morgan Rielly is still the key on defense for the Leafs, but he’s entering a very economical $7.5-million-per-season salary, and though the health of veteran Jake Muzzin is worrisome, the Buds have enough talent to absorb a blow or two to their defense corps. That’s more reason for optimism.

But the key reason Leafs fans have reason for optimism is their forward group. No matter what you think of their salary breakdown, you can’t argue Toronto doesn’t have one of the most, if not the most potent first lines of forwards in the game today. Start with last season’s most valuable player and top goal-scorer, Auston Matthews, who just turned 25, and then go to fellow stars Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander, and you have a leviathan top two lines.

But the Leafs’ third and fourth-lines up front are going to look much different, with Dubas committing to more grit in the forms of Calle Jarnkrok, Nicolas Aube-Kubel and, perhaps, training camp tryout Zach Aston-Reese. The difference between Toronto’s top-six and bottom-six forwards may be more stark, but so long as Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander deliver on offense, the Leafs just need the bottom-six to not be a problem on defense.

As you can see, there’s plenty of data that point to the Leafs being strong once again in this coming regular season. It’s not going to be easy for them in an improved Atlantic Division, but there’s no reason why Toronto can’t again be a fearsome unit through 82 games. We all know they’ll ultimately be judged on the games that come after the regular season, but all sorts of unexpected influences can dictate what happens at that point. For now, at least, optimism deserves as much of a place at the Leafs’ table as pessimism does.