As the Toronto Maple Leafs bounce around sloppily and slide down the Atlantic Division standings, much of fan and media focus and frustration has centered around defenseman Justin Holl. By all accounts, on a personal level, Holl’s teammates are fond of him, and he’s still a better blueliner than 99+ -percent of the world. And yes, Leafs fans have been known to direct their ire at the wrong target – with the usual invoking of Hockey Hall-of-Famer Larry Murphy as an example.
But I’m old enough to have seen Larry Murphy. I know Larry Murphy. And Justin Holl is no Larry Murphy. I don’t blame Leafs fans for being unhappy with his performance, but I also have empathy for the guy, as unfortunately for him, he’s being asked to do too much. He isn’t a top-four D-man in hockey’s best league, and that’s not a slight on his character or determination to win. He just doesn’t have the same attributes you look for in your top two defensive pairings.
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The other problem for the 30-year-old Holl is the amount of money he makes: at a salary cap hit of $2 million per season, he makes far less than the NHL-average payday of $3.196-million-a-year, but on a cap-strapped team like the Leafs, every dollar counts in large amounts, and many would prefer seeing Leafs coaching and management install currently-injured youngster Timothy Liljegren in Holl’s current spot on the second pair when Liljegren is healthy again. The 20:17 of ice time Holl has been given on average thus far this season is about three or four minutes too much. I’d be much more comfortable if Holl was put with veteran Mark Giordano on the third pair.
Certainly, this is not to excuse the rest of the Leafs. Holl hasn’t been helped by his teammates in Toronto’s recent losing skid. An offense that is generating approximately two goals per game isn’t bailing out the Leafs’ defensive mistakes. Stars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have not been generating nearly enough points. The goaltending has been sub-par on occasion. There are other holes in Toronto’s dam.
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Unfortunately for Holl, the Leafs apparently do not believe there’s any better answer on the second pair than him. Veteran Jake Muzzin is out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, and even when he’s back, he’s not the player he once was. Again, this is no negative comment on Muzzin as an athlete or his legacy as an NHLer; rather, it’s an acknowledgment that time takes its toll on everyone, and before you know it, we all find ourselves running to stand still. Muzzin is closer to that truth than ever, but there’s no question the chemical composition of the second pair is fundamentally changed with Holl as the anchor, and it’s not for the better. Holl has been making too many wrong guesses, too many wrong readings of the play, too many unfinished rushes on offense. You can say he’d be a better player on a better team, but that’s not the reality of the situation. He’s on this Leafs team, and it’s not working out.
If Holl were providing adequate numbers, Leafs GM Kyle Dubas would’ve signed him to a contract extension by now. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer, and ideally, you never want to have an asset leave your organization and not get another type of asset in return. But the fact is Toronto can pay another, younger player with more upside, and pay them less money than they’re paying to Holl to give them this type of output. In their cap crunch, they need more from less of an expenditure of money and competitive opportunity, and they’re not getting it.
Perhaps Holl figures it out with another team. So be it. His ceiling has been pretty well-established now, and it doesn’t fit in with the Leafs and where they are in the grand scheme of things. Dubas should be looking for a new home for him. It feels best for the team and the individual at this point. He’s a square peg in a round hole on the second pair, and the sooner he’s asked to do less – at which point, he may look highly improved – the better for all involved.
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