“Meaningful Games” Not Yet Out Of The Question For The Ottawa Senators

After drawing criticism Tuesday for a 5-2 home loss to the Los Angeles Kings, the Ottawa Senators obviously took matters to heart on their mini two-game sojourn to Dallas and Nashville, earning three out of a possible four points.

The club dominated the Stars, for the most part, Thursday until they appeared to run of out of gas the in the third period. Outshot 12-2, the Senators bent but didn’t break, gutting out a 4-3 overtime loss.

Despite being a scoreless affair Saturday for the opening 37 minutes, the Senators controlled the play. Claude Giroux netted a power play marker with eight seconds remaining in the middle frame to tie at one.

Alex DeBrincat finally received some puck luck when his pass intended for Drake Batherson was accidentally steered in by Predators defender Dante Fabbro. And then Batherson went to work himself. Sent in on a breakaway of a Brady Tkachuk pass, Batherson delayed and floated a shot over Juuse Saros to provide the Senators a 3-1 lead they never gave up, eventually winning 3-2.

Drake on the break! 🚨#GoSensGo pic.twitter.com/2BXIu0YOsk

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) December 10, 2022

Whether it was the accompaniment of the “Sens Dads” on the road or the wanting to put Tuesday’s disappointment behind them, the latest pair of games have once again put the team on a path to play “meaningful games” in March/April, an edict set by team management, coaches and players alike prior to the 2022-23 campaign.

Whatever the reason, likely a combination of both, the Senators possess a 5-2-1 record over their past eight games with the league’s 32nd-ranked Anaheim Ducks in Ottawa Monday – a squad that Ottawa thrashed 5-1 just 16 days ago.

But now they need to sustain this latest pace and then some if they wish to make a move to climb back into the Atlantic Division race.

How do they do it?

Special Teams are key

Eight games ago, the Senators’ power play was ranked 12th league-wide. The PP currently sits seventh in the NHL after increasing their efficiency from 22.4 to 26.5 % with the team going 12 for 35 with the man advantage during this period. The club has notched two PP markers or more in half of these games, and have accomplished this in three of their past four.

Similar to the Senators’ power play, the penalty kill has also shown its gains, rising from 21st to 17th league-wide, permitting five goals in 25 opportunities against.

The Senators are also managing to stay out of the box a tad more, spending an average of one minute less per game in the box over the past three weeks.

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With the shots, come the goals

Paraphrasing one of former Senator Alexei Kovalev’s old shooting training videos, just shoot the puck.

Per TopDown Hockey, the club is in a fifth-place tie with the Golden Knights in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes with a scoring rate of 2.96 goals.

What does this mean? Expected goals are the measure of the probability of a shot scoring based on its quality and where the shot takes place on the ice. It’s calculated by comparing thousands of shots based on factors such as distance from the net and shot type.

The Senators are averaging 33.7 shots on goal per game at the 27-game mark – sixth in the NHL. Comparatively, last season the team averaged 30 per game, which was 20th overall. A three-shot differential may not seem like much, but it can easily be the difference between winning and losing, especially in tight contests.

Stabilizing the defense

Injuries have plagued the Senators throughout this season. Josh Norris’ shoulder injury sent the club into an early season tailspin where they went winless in seven games at one juncture.

On the blue line, an upper-body injury to Artem Zub followed by Thomas Chabot being out with multiple ailments including a concussion didn’t help matters.

Now Chabot is back at full health, playing some of his best hockey as an Ottawa Senator in his seventh full season with the team. His four power-play goals are already a career-best, and he’s just ended a four-game string where he registered three goals and three assists in four games.

However, after sustaining a jaw fracture, Zub is out of the lineup once again. The Senators will be without a key cog on their back end for another two to three weeks.

The Senators will have to learn to play without the 27-year-old for the time being. The last time Zub missed game action the Senators’ record was 2-6-1. So far, they’re 2-1-1, an improvement to say the least, but they’ll have to maintain their solid play.

Nikita Zaitsev who was recently placed on waivers and subsequently assigned to the Senators’ American League affiliate Belleville has performed admirably in his return to the team, skating in Zub’s absence.

Senators’ head coach D.J. Smith told Full Press Hockey upon his return, “Wins and losses aren’t pegged on one guy. Let’s be clear about that. He’s also come back and played well. Sometimes you need a mental reset. For him, his job is to defend. He’s had his struggles for sure and I think he’ll admit that. The last two games, he’s played well.”

Freshman Jake Sanderson in the midst of a banner rookie campaign will be leaned upon. In games minus Zub, Sanderson’s time-on-ice increased significantly. Averaging 21:03 on the season, the 20-year-old’s TOI has been above his average in 10 of 13 outings.

Need balanced scoring

The line of Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux has been far and away the Senators’ de facto number one trio. Garnering 31 points (12 goals, 19 assists) in 27 games, Tkachuk is on pace for a personal high in points, as is Stützle (27 points, 10 goals, 17 assists). While Giroux’s 12 goals have him on a 36-goal clip, two goals more than his season-best 34 netted in 2017-18 with the Philadelphia Flyers.

It’s hoped Drake Batherson and Alex DeBrincat have found their groove, or are at least in the process.

Having previously gone without a goal in nine games, Batherson has two in his past three games, while adding four assists in four games.

With a goal in Nashville, albeit one off a defender, DeBrincat appears to be on the right track. The goal was only his first in seven games, but the Michigan resident is contributing offensively, recording points in five straight games. His 93 shots on goal are second to Tkachuk’s 123,

If the Senators are to play “meaningful games” in the latter stage of 2022-23, these are some of the key points in order to do.