Inconsistent Leafs Need Help For Bottom-Six Group of Forwards Before Trade Deadline

The Toronto Maple Leafs have struggled to be consistent of late – they’re just 5-3-2 in their past 10 games – and their defense has become their Achilles tendon: in four of those five defeats, they’ve allowed at least four goals. This is a stark reversal of fortunes for a team that was one of the NHL’s better defensive squads early in the season. And Buds GM Kyle Dubas has until the March 3 trade deadline to make high-impact changes and improve his team’s Stanley Cup expectations.

With a good degree of depth on their blueline, the Leafs will be tinkering with their bottom-six group of forwards for the rest of the season. If their past approach to NCAA players is any indication, one of those forward spots is going to be taken by top prospect Matthew Knies. But that leaves more than a couple of spots for trade acquisitions and players from their American League affiliate.

That almost certainly means it’s only going to get harder for respected veteran Wayne Simmonds to get into the lineup. Toronto’s games against more physical opponents will be the best chance for Simmonds to remain on the fourth line, but with Knies and Simmonds in the lineup, Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe will have opportunities for players Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf and Alexander Kerfoot, and not all of them are guaranteed to be in the lineup when Toronto’s first-round playoff series begins. Kerfoot will be rumored to be moving on via a trade until March 3, and if a younger, cheaper alternative presents itself, we might see Keefe sit Kerfoot for a game or two before then.

Otherwise, Dubas is going to have to move out some talent as he tries to bring in new talent in the bottom six. We’ve said before, Kerfoot and blueliner Justin Holl are two of Toronto’s handful of pending-UFAs, and they likely won’t be returning for the 2023-24 campaign. This is why Dubas must do what he can to turn both of them into either prospects down the line, or blue-collar NHLers who can contribute right away. And to those who would say it’s best to keep them around, let’s be honest – if Kerfoot and Holl are the difference between winning a couple of rounds and losing out early in the playoffs once again, there are bigger organizational issues than the future of Kerfoot and Holl in Toronto.

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As per CapFriendly.com, the Leafs are projected to have only $1.1 million in salary cap space by the trade deadline. That means Dubas will probably have to include two or more teams in any trade to make it fit under the cap. And that means one of Toronto’s prospects – winger Nick Robertson, perhaps – and one of their first-round draft picks will have to be spent to get something of consequence back in return. It’s going to be a seller’s market heading into the deadline, and the Leafs are in win-now mode, so they have to be prepared to step up their game and offer potential trade partners the kind of deal that will help them not now, but down the line. Knies should be off-limits, but other than that, there aren’t many players who should be off the table.

If they don’t wind up as the destination for above-average talents, not only will Toronto wind up without the traded talent, but one of their Atlantic Division rivals could be the team that lands the needle-mover. To wit: if Boston acquires star center Bo Horvat, the Bruins’ advantage over opponents would be unfair. Dubas has to go the extra mile to ensure that the Bs and Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t the ones adding difference-making players.

With his future in Toronto potentially on the line, Dubas can’t afford to be patient this year. He’s got an above-average core up front, and depth on ‘D’, but the Leafs’ recent performances have shown there’s still something to be desired in them as a group. The Buds have a little more than five weeks to address their needs, and they need to be forceful and focused on outbidding competitors on the trade front. If they don’t, another first-round absence is in the cards. And that would be a crater of a season once again.