The Toronto Maple Leafs are having difficulties putting together a long stretch of winning right now. Since their modest, three-game win streak that ended in early January, the Leafs haven’t won more than two in a row, and they’ve won two straight only twice since then. Consistency is clearly a problem.
Part of the reason Toronto hasn’t been able to go on a long run of winning is their overall health. As most people are aware, superstar center Auston Matthews is on the sidelines with a knee injury, with no promised date of return. Matthews joins veteran defenseman Jake Muzzin and goalie Matt Murray on the injured reserve, and that’s a considerable group of talent that Leafs GM Kyle Dubas envisioned being healthy and ready to play the entire season. Matthews will be back relatively soon, and Murray may be following him back to the NHL roster.
That can’t happen soon enough for the Buds, who, suddenly, have an offense that doesn’t exactly fear it, as they would fear any legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Toronto’s second line of Calle Jarnkroc, Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander is absolutely being carried by Nylander, but his success doesn’t take away from the fact this is not an imposing second line in the world’s best hockey league. Kerfoot could and should be traded by the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, and the effect of Matthews’ return will cascade down the lineup, probably resulting in Jarnkroc or Kerfoot sliding down to the third line. Even then – even with captain John Tavares moving back to the second-line center position – it’s pretty apparent the Leafs need an upgrade for the second-line left wing spot.
That upgrade is entirely possible with the state of the current trade market. Veterans such as Philadelphia’s James van Riemsdyk, and San Jose’s Timo Meier could easily step into the second-line role, and even a veteran center such as St. Louis’ Ryan O’Reilly could push David Kampf to the fourth-line center job. Those type of players could easily improve the Leafs’ offensive attack, and leave players like Kampf, Kerfoot, Jarnkroc, Pierre Engvall, Wayne Simmonds, and the rotating cast of young AHL Marlies players would be there to fight over one third-line job and the three slots on the fourth line. Kampf, who has had a solid-enough season in a checking role, would be the favorite to man the fourth-line center.
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All of this is not to say the Leafs are in serious trouble in the standings. From game to game, they can look like a leviathan, outclassing their opponents to a humbling degree. But from game to game, their overall play can swing wildly, and that’s the issue.
Dubas is expected to be engaged and active by the trade deadline, and their focus ought to be on a veteran winger, but the Leafs may pencil in NCAA prospect Matthew Knies for a tryout on the second line instead. Knies is a left-handed shot (something that’s untrue of Chicago’s Patrick Kane, who would be a longshot to land in Toronto for many reasons), and Knies has looked like a superstar at the level he’s playing at the moment. But do the Leafs want to put a lot of pressure on a 20-year-old who has never played an NHL game? That seems like the opposite of what the Buds have done with their prospects over the years. Normally, the Maple Leafs protect their youngsters, and slowly acclimate them to the professional game.
Knies may wind up thriving on the second line, but if Toronto can use what’s left of their cap space (projected by Cap Friendly to be only $296,666), a first-round draft pick and a slightly above-average prospect, they can improve their top-six forward group and, perhaps, make a second deal for a bottom-six forward as well. But it’s clear what the Leafs’ major problem is right now. They need to improve one precise position in their top-six forwards unit in order to make the bottom-six forward group more formidable. Simply put, the status quo is not enough.
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