Leafs’ Final Game Likely To See Veterans Sidelined, But That’s A Good Thing

The Toronto Maple Leafs have one game left in their regular-season schedule, a road matchup against the New York Rangers Thursday night. Star forwards Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner sat out in Toronto’s 4-3 win over Tampa Bay Tuesday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see both of them in the press box again – as well as captain John Tavares and top defenseman Morgan Rielly. Thursday’s game means nothing to the Buds or Rangers in the standing – well, almost nothing; a Rangers victory so it will seem like a pre-season game rather than a do-or-die showdown.

That said, the Rangers game will still have some intriguing elements: rookie Matthew Knies will almost certainly get top-six forwards-level ice time as he tries to acclimate to the NHL level. Toronto’s defense corps also will likely look different, with No. 1 D-man Morgan Rielly possibly getting a rest, and depth defender Connor Timmins possibly inserted into the lineup. And in net, the Leafs most likely won’t play starter Ilya Samsonov (who also was scratched from the Lightning game, along with veteran blueliner Mark Giordano), and instead go with youngster Joseph Woll for the second straight game.

We all know why these healthy scratches are happening. The risk of injury to any of Toronto’s key components is significant, and Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe can throw out a lineup against the Blueshirts that will be markedly different for Game One of Toronto’s first-round matchup against the Bolts without hurting the team in any way. The Leafs’ 15-6-3 record since Feb. 19 has given them the luxury of resting players and keeping them fresh for Round One, and putting some of their top players in the press box is something any other NHL team in the same circumstances would do.

After Tuesday’s win, the Leafs have a 2-0-1 record against Tampa this season – and their only loss was a 4-3 overtime road defeat on Dec. 3. But the lineup in that loss was very different than the one Toronto will put together for the start of the first round; up front in that December game included forwards Pontus Holmberg, Pierre Engvall, Nick Robertson and Wayne Simmonds, and on defense, Victor Mete, Rasmus Sandin and Mac Hollowell played for Toronto. None of those seven players will suit up for Game One.

Just as importantly, veteran goalie Matt Murray was between the pipes for that December loss, and there’s no chance Murray starts the series against Tampa. So, that’s more than one-third of the 20-man roster the Leafs will be playing against the Lightning. This is why Leafs management believes the Buds can finally shake off their playoff demons of the past and make it to the second round and beyond for the first time since 2003-04.

Leafs players understand it is now on them to grow as a group. They know Keefe’s system. They know each other. They know what they’re capable of when things are going their way, and they know what happens when they lose. They also know that losing to the Lightning will put a stake through the collective heart of management, and that change will be coming in the off-season.

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As we’ve noted here before, that change isn’t likely to alter Toronto’s core four forwards (Matthews, Marner, Tavares and William Nylander), but there will be no chance the Leafs ice the same lineup next season. Something will have to change – most likely, Murray will be bought out of the final year of his contract, and secondary players such as forwards David Kampf and Alex Kerfoot, as well as defenseman Justin Holl, all will be allowed to leave via unrestricted free agency. Holl, Kerfoot and Kampf may move on anyway due to the Leafs’ upcoming salary cap crunch, but losing to the Lightning will almost certainly be the end of the road for the trio in Toronto.

Leafs fans are well-advised to savor the last few days before the playoffs begin. It’s important to recognize Toronto’s success this regular season. Once again, they have played well enough, consistently enough, and they’ve got the NHL’s fourth-best record. GM Kyle Dubas and his management team have assembled a deep, talented and well-balanced group, and they deserve credit for that.

However, we’ve said all season long that none of this will matter if the Leafs lay an egg in the first round. There’s massive pressure to beat the Lightning and go on a deep playoff run, and there’s no room for error. For that reason, the Tampa/Toronto series is one of the most intriguing of the entire post-season