Expanded AHL Playoffs Don’t Quite Pay Off

The 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs are well underway in the American Hockey League, with the initial postseason field of 23 teams being whittled down to 16 after one round of play. You read that right – 23 of the 32 existing AHL franchises qualified for the playoffs this season. And if it sounds familiar, it’s because it occurred last season, too.

It may seem absurd that 70% of the AHL makes the Calder Cup Playoffs come year’s end. But, with the National Football League and National Basketball Association expanding their postseasons in recent years, does it actually make sense for the American Hockey League to do the same? What led the league to pursue playoff expansion in the first place?

SHOCKING THE SYSTEM

The current AHL playoff format was announced in August 2021. The league had emerged from a shortened 2021 regular season where the Pacific was the only division to hold a postseason. Like this current postseason, the 2022 Calder Cup Playoffs had 23 teams qualify for the playoffs. All but two teams in each division would punch tickets to the first round, including seven out of nine teams in the Pacific.

It was a noticeable departure from the last pre-COVID postseason held in 2019. That year, only four teams from each division qualified for the Calder Cup Playoffs. A total of 16 teams played in the first round divisional semifinals in a clear-cut format. Like the NHL, the AHL had 31 teams at the time, and the close-to-even split for playoff teams was symmetrical for both leagues.

So why did the league opt to expand the playoffs by seven teams? In a press release announcing the move, AHL Commissioner and CEO Scott Howson explained the growth of the postseason field. “Expanding the Calder Cup Playoff field will allow some 150 additional players to play more meaningful games in pursuit of a championship.”

On the surface, the sentiment of more players earning valuable postseason experience is admirable. However, it could be argued that the seven additional teams in the Calder Cup Playoffs are actually not reaping the benefits of postseason play. AHL analytics guru Sean O’Brien was quick to point out a trend after this year’s first round was complete.

In AHL series where all games are in one team's building, road teams are 2-16 in those games and 0-8 in those series.

Maybe it's time @theAHL lets them take on the travel costs? Because otherwise, to paraphrase Daryl Sutter, "It's a waste of 4 days"https://t.co/tKpNS7Soop https://t.co/AsPCjAKB46

— Sean O'Brien (@SeanOBrien81) April 24, 2023

Two seasons is a very small sample size when it comes to measuring sports stats, but in regards to the AHL postseason format, it’s a packet of data worth considering.

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

Like Sean highlighted, the problem with the new opening round format is not just the lower seed getting bounced, but teams not even getting a home game in the best-of-three format. All of these series but one happened in the Western Conference, where distance is a more significant factor than out in the Eastern Conference. 

In 2022, higher-seeded Rockford, Ontario, Colorado, and Bakersfield all hosted two first round playoff games. All four teams swept their opponents. In 2023, Charlotte, Coachella Valley, Colorado, and Abbotsford hosted all of their first round match-ups. The Checkers needed a Game 3 to eliminate Lehigh Valley, splitting home games with the Phantoms along the way. The Firebirds took all three games to down the Roadrunners, but every game was played at Asicure Arena in Palm Desert, CA. 

Seven out of the eight lower seeds paid for first-round road travel, knowing full well they only had away games to look forward to. All seven squads were vanquished in short order and sent right back home in a few days’ time.

Around The AHL

• Wranglers End Season in Series Loss to Firebirds
• Wranglers Advance, Set To Play Coachella Valley This Week
• Eagles Lose Game 5, Eliminated From Playoffs
• Expanded AHL Playoffs Don’t Quite Pay Off
• Firebirds Tie Series on True’s Shorthanded Stunner

MORE TEAMS EQUALS MORE EXPERIENCE?

It would be one thing if these first round, best-of-three series were split down the middle in regards to wins and losses on either side of the seeding. Hell, even if a third of these series went to the lower seeds, that would be cause to maintain the status quo for a few more seasons. However, the higher seed has not only won every single series, six of the eight series have needed only two of three games scheduled.

Do the players really want an expanded postseason? Any chance to play spoiler to a higher seed and advance in the playoffs would easily serve as motivation. Do the owners want an expanded postseason? The opportunity to gain revenue in a potential second round series does exist. But after two years of first round match-ups and no lower seed advancing, how long do owners want to keep shipping their team to away games with no chance for profit?

A PROPOSED SOLUTION

Once again referencing Sean O’Brien’s tweet, the cost of a road team traveling for a first round, best-of-three series should not be solely the responsibility of the away team. If this expanded postseason is to continue, travel costs should be shared between both teams. Especially if one team is hosting all three possible games, it only makes sense to split expenses.

I find it debatable that Howson’s “additional players to play more meaningful games in pursuit of a championship” is actually applicable if these added teams don’t make it past the first round. As aforementioned, the results have been all eight lower seeds over the span of two postseasons getting shown the door. Being eliminated from the playoffs in the opening series does not a championship pursuit make.

If costs are split between owners for first round match-ups, the practice of expanded playoffs is fine by me. Additional players are getting two or three more games of postseason experience. But, if the lower seed continues to get sent home packing, the expansion loses its purpose. If the same trend continues for another season or two, serious consideration should be made to return to a 16-team postseason format – four teams per division, eight teams per conference.

Maybe that will push the league to finally shrink the bloated, 10-team Pacific Division! Ah, but one topical article at a time…