New-Look Maple Leafs A Much Different Team, But A Better One

With the NHL’s free agent players largely finding new homes in the past week-and-a-half, it’s a great time to check in on where the Toronto Maple Leafs stand in comparison to last season’s team. As always, there are Leafs fans filled with anxiety over the moves the organization has made, but let’s break down Toronto’s signings and roster turnover and see if this team is better than the one that won a Stanley Cup playoff series before bowing out to Florida in Round Two.

The Leafs lost a number of veterans via unrestricted free agency, including winger Michael Bunting, who departed for Carolina. However, he was replaced as a top-six forward by UFA signing Tyler Bertuzzi. The verdict on this change? We’re giving the edge to Toronto, as Bertuzzi has a higher end on the goal-producing front than Bunting does.

The Buds also lost two rugged forwards in center Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari; replacing O’Reilly as the third-line center is David Kampf, who agreed to a new contract and shifts back into a familiar role. On this front, the Leafs are the losers, as O’Reilly is still a solid two-way player with more upside on offense than Kampf. As for Acciari, he’s essentially being replaced by rookie Matthew Knies, and that’s a big win for Toronto.

Meanwhile, forward Alex Kerfoot left the Buds via free agency, and his contract, in essence, was replaced by forward Max Domi, who can play on one of Toronto’s second or third forward lines and is a lot harder to play against than Kerfoot. Thus, we’re saying the Leafs have improved on that roster spot this coming season. In addition, on defense, the Leafs bid farewell to UFAs Justin Holl and Erik Gustafsson, replacing the former with offense-minded veteran John Klingberg, and giving more minutes to youngster Conor Timmins to replace the latter as a seventh D-man. Klingberg is a significant improvement on offense from Holl, and Timmins is more or less a wash compared to Gustafsson. All-in-all, the Leafs’ defense is slightly better than it was in 2022-23.

Finally, in goal, we haven’t yet discovered what way Toronto GM Brad Treliving is going to dispose of often-injured veteran Matt Murray, but we don’t see any way Murray can be brought back without a fan and media revolt – especially when youngster Joseph Woll, who impressed in short NHL stints last year, has to go through waivers if the Leafs chose to send him to the American League. Toronto would undoubtedly lose Woll, and that’s not happening, so you can put it in ink, not pencil – next season’s goalie tandem for the Leafs will be Woll in the No. 2 spot and restricted free agent Ilya Samsonov as the starter. That’s another area in which Toronto should be better than they were last season.

So, let’s add up the math: the Leafs are better up front with Bertuzzi, Domi and a full NHL season from Knies. They’re also better on the blueline now that another team has overpaid Holl, and now that Klingberg can create more offense at even strength and the power play. And they’re better between the pipes with a Samsonov/Woll tandem.

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Now, there may be moves still to be made by Treliving – and if there are, they likely will come on the blueline. But if the Leafs’ roster stays the same as it is at the moment, there’s every reason to believe the team can once again challenge for top spot in the Atlantic Division, and go even deeper into the post-season in 2024. You do have to be somewhat of an optimist to believe that, but at the same time, you’d probably be overly negative to suggest these moves can’t work out for Toronto’s benefit. Even the replacement of Wayne Simmonds as an enforcer type with new signing Ryan Reaves is better for the Buds.

Not all of the Leafs’ signings are going to unfold the way management wants them to – few teams ever have that luxury – but you can see where Treliving and President Brendan Shanahan are moving, and they may prove to be correct in that assessment. Team chemistry and good luck on the health front are also important, but Toronto’s roster turnover has made the Leafs more difficult to play against, and the way the playoffs are officiated – with anything short of outright tackling being legal in the eyes of the toothless officials – that’s a good thing for the Blue and White.

If Toronto fails to get past the second round next spring, we’ll likely be looking at much more significant change in Leafs Land. But for now, Treliving has the cachet that has earned him some decent runway to land the plane. He’s made the Buds greasier and more ornery, and if that’s not the solution to the Leafs’ woes, changes to their core of talent will be coming. As it stands, that core is getting one more chance to get it right.