It’s back… NHL expansion is back in the conversation once again. Could the league seriously be thinking of expanding to 36 teams? It seems to make sense at least financially. The NHL could rack in from $750 million to $1 billion in expansion fees PER TEAM! Now, it may not happen right away… say by 2030, but the league is not rejecting the idea.
NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski at the NHL/NHLPA player media tour in September:
“There are potential markets that may be suitable for NHL hockey, so our policy is really an open-door policy. If you are interested and have a plan, come see us and certainly we’ll evaluate it from there. If it becomes something our owners are interested in, we can pursue it. Nothing has risen to that level currently, but that could change.”
NHL Expansion to 36 Teams Could Be Best
The additional revenue the NHL is accumulating is supported by the salary cap projections increasing by $4.5 million for the 2024-25 season. Gary Bettman, NHL commissioner stated: “The state of the League is very strong. The game is in great shape. Our franchises have never been better owned or stronger, and we’re excited to have the start of another season upon us.”
All of that equates to a sports league being very profitable and needing to expand, and gather in more new fans of the fast-growing sport attraction. Of course, it’s all about revenue and to increase the size of the league will help immensely with that concept. So, if expansion is a go, where would the NHL choose cities for expansion? Much speculation includes cities like Salt Lake City, Houston, Atlanta, and Quebec City. But, lately, San Diego’s name was introduced by hockey insider Kevin Weekes.
With 3 teams currently in California, could San Diego become the 4th @NHL team there ? The potential Midway Rising mixed use development project would include a 16000 seat Arena.
What would you Fans name the potential club there ? #HockeyTwitter pic.twitter.com/fxxyHsIxDw— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) September 22, 2023
While San Diego may have the attributes to become an NHL expansion city, there are obstacles to it happening. Included would be preferred cities already positioned for opportunities, current arena plans lacking the level of traffic mitigation, and surface-road improvements for top-tier professional sports and more strangle optimism. Yet, the NHL staged a preseason game recently between the Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks. It marked the first time an NHL preseason game took place in San Diego since 1994.
The Hockey Guy’s Perspective
The Hockey Guy (Shannon Skanes), is a popular Youtube contributor who has over 290,000 subscribers. In a recent video he broke down the four teams he feels the NHL will consider as expansion cities. He listed Houston to be added to the Central Division. Salt Lake City would go to the Pacific Division in the Western Conference. Then, in the Eastern Conference, he has Atlanta (yes, that’s not a mistype) going to the Metro Division, with Quebec City landing in the Atlantic Division.
Now, all of this is very dependent on what happens to the Arizona Coyotes and their current arena situation. It seems like all indications are that by January 2024 the Coyotes will have an arena plan nailed down. If not, then that could drastically change the NHL’s expansion plans. For this article, we shall assume that the Coyotes will remain in Arizona going forward.
Wait, Atlanta AGAIN?
Yes, things have changed since the city tried expansion there twice before. Coming in as the #6 TV market certainly gives them a boost. So, which division would a prospective Atlanta franchise play from? It must be the Metro since if Quebec City gets added as well, they most certainly will be playing in the Atlantic against the arch-rival Montreal Canadiens. Atlanta has tried twice to be an NHL city. The Atlanta Flames played from 1972 to 1980 before relocating to Calgary. The Atlanta Thrashers played there from 1999 to 2011 before relocating to Winnipeg to become the second coming of the Jets.
Deputy NHL Commissioner Bill Daly had this to say about the Atlanta market: “The Atlanta market is much different now than it was for either of the NHL’s previous expansion attempts. I think times have changed pretty dramatically and the market demographics have changed pretty dramatically since the first time we went there and then again in 1999,” he said. “I think a lot of bigger businesses are in Atlanta [now].” The key here is the location of where the team would play. A new facility in Alpharetta, Georgia about 30 minutes from Atlanta could become the new site to build a hockey arena. Playing in State Farm arena where the NBA Atlanta Hawks play is not a good fit for hockey. If Atlanta gets added, a shiny new arena will become an attractive way to get fans in the building.
Houston… Do We Have Liftoff?
Houston seems to be a no-brainer in that they are the 4th largest metropolitan area in population and the 7th TV market. They too have four major sports franchises with the Astros (MLB), Texans (NFL), Rockets (NBA), and the Dynamo (MLS). That sounds like lots of competition for the sports fans to choose from, but is it overkill? Not really. Being as large a city as it is, the NHL would thrive there successfully. Remember, it’s all about the money. That expansion fee is money in the other owners’ accounts, and last time this writer checked the owners are very interested in making more money.
There is a fanbase in Houston since they have had hockey previously. Of course, Houston has been mentioned to the point of nausea as the destination for the Arizona Coyotes to relocate. The NHL would get much more if they came in as an expansion team. So all the rumors that the Coyotes may be going to Houston are well just that… rumors. Houston would be in the Central Division. It could be that Atlanta and Houston get expansion franchises first while the remaining two could come a couple of years later.
Salt Lake City
The NHL has shown interest in this city even though they are just the 29th TV market. Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith has shown increased interest in bringing the NHL to Salt Lake City. Smith boosted pretty loudly that the NHL will be coming to Utah eventually. If the Arizona team doesn’t get their act together, Smith seems ready to grab an NHL team in any way possible.
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Quebec City
They have been yelling for an NHL team for some time now. They have fan support and are ranked 7th in the Canadian TV market. The obvious arch-rival Habs would create an instant rivalry the NHL loves. There’s lots of hockey history in Quebec City, and it seems logical that the NHL add this city to round out the 36 teams. The Quebec team would be in the Atlantic Division. They have an NHL-ready arena, seems like a done deal for expansion there. Gary Bettman when asked about the possibility of Quebec City being added, said they are not in expansion mode now. He did not say we are NOT ever going to expand. That leaves the door open for Quebec City to walk through and become an NHL team.
Expanded Playoffs Would be Needed
With the addition of four teams, the playoffs would need to expand as well. Perhaps the division leaders get a bye or there would be some kind of play-in tournament as what was done during COVID. In any case, with more teams, the playoffs get more exciting and have more teams involved. That can only augment the NHL’s pocketbook, and the owners love that. Expansion is coming, but it may be six years or so until it comes to fruition.
Final Thoughts
The success of the NHL after COVID-19 days is remarkable. The salary cap is rising indicating the league is very healthy financially. Like any organization success breeds expansion. The four cities mentioned above have a stake in that success and we shall see if things work out for them. The next item after expansion may be international play, and that’s a whole different set of challenges.
One thing is certain… the NHL is increasing its fanbase and it’s time to see other markets get a piece of the pie.
What about a return to Hartford? The Whalers have a lot of history.
But, no real facility to move into.
Honestly, once they fully renovate and finish the lower bowl strategy they could have a shot.
Y not come to Wisconsin for a team?
With 36 teams, any one franchise would have a statistical expectation of winning fewer than 3 Stanley Cups in a century. (Of course, the Leafs would continue to have no chance whatsoever).
Thrashers didn’t fail because of lack of support. This is the biggest lie and misconception in hockey history. They never broke records with attendance but were never the worst. NYI and PHX were still lower in the Thrashers final year even when fans became pissed off that they were trading away all of their potential talent. ASG is to blame for Atlanta having 2 unsuccessful attempts at holding an NHL franchise. Also, putting the team in the suburbs should’ve always been the plan from the beginning.
Arenas in the suburbs, not downtown- are ALWAYS successful, with every game a sellout. What could possibly go wrong?
Sincerely, -Phoenix, Ottawa, and Cleveland
The Islanders do pretty well with their new arena. It’s definitely in the suburbs
Houston Renegades or Houston Puck Pigs – Players In Game Shape – Pigs