Leafs Have No Choice But To Keep White-Hot Nylander For Long Term

The Toronto Maple Leafs came away from their trip to Sweden with two wins in as many games – they’re now on a four-game win streak, and they’ve won five of their past six – but they’ve also got a growing concern as far as the future of star winger William Nylander. The 27-year-old was the big story in the games in Sweden, generating a pair of goals and five points to give him 12 goals and 27 points in 17 games. That’s just one point behind the NHL’s top point-getter, Vancouver defenseman Quinn Hughes. But that individual success is going to cause Leafs GM Brad Treliving a lot more difficulty as he attempts to get Nylander’s signature on a contract extension.

If Nylander’s asking price was $10 million at the beginning of the season, he’s almost assuredly bumped that number up to at least $11 million, if not more. And while that’s now a very fair number, it will mean notable changes beginning next season and carrying on into the near future.

Before we go any further, let’s get one thing straight: Treliving has to – HAS TO – keep Nylander in the fold. He does not want his legacy to be “GM who traded Nylander” or “GM who let Nylander leave on the free agent market for nothing in return”. For a franchise that is in win-now mode, there’s no justification for not being able to keep Nylander around.

With that said, let’s talk money. As per Puck Pedia, Toronto has $34.2 million in salary cap space next season, but they’ve only got 10 players signed. Much of that space has to go to defensemen – the Buds have four unrestricted free-agent blueliners next summer – but if Treliving does figure out how to retain Nylander, now you’re talking $24.2 million to spend on the 12 remaining roster spots. That doesn’t afford you much money to retain scheduled UFAs Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. Oh, and that $24.2 million also has to go to a second goaltender alongside rookie Joseph Woll. Ilya Samsonov – another UFA this summer – has been hit-and-miss thus far this year, but if he gives a performance like the one he gave last season, he’ll earn a raise on his current $3.55-million salary.

Do you see where we’re going with this? Treliving will almost certainly have no choice but to employ young players on cheap contracts, and that includes roster spots on ‘D’ and on the wings up front. Let’s say that means players like Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, Nick Abruzesse, and Pontus Holmberg will get increased ice time – and current veterans such as David Kampf and Calle Jarnkroc will be candidates to be traded in the off-season. The effect of a big Nylander raise will be felt in the quality of Toronto’s depth.

The one positive (and intriguing) element to keep in mind is that, after the end of next season, the Leafs will be free and clear of captain John Tavares’ $11-million contract. We’re not here to tell you Tavares doesn’t bring anything to the table; indeed, he has been exactly the type of consistent, point-per-game player the Leafs wanted when they signed him. But when that contract ends, we’re going to see how much Tavares wants to remain in Toronto by how much of a hometown haircut he takes on his next contract. In recent years, the Boston Bruins and their top two centers, Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci played for next to nothing to give Boston a chance to fill out the roster with capable veterans, and while Tavares isn’t going to play for $1 million per season on his next deal, he shouldn’t be commanding anywhere near what he’s been making on his current contract.

That Tavares cap space is what Nylander will eat up on his contract extension, and that’s how it should be. Toronto can still have its Core Four, but in this case, the money spent on the quartet will change in how much goes to each player. Superstars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will still be the Leafs’ highest-paid players, but now, rather than Tavares coming in with the second-highest salary, he’ll be in fourth place, making something closer to Nylander’s $6.94-million salary this year.

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Nylander was always going to get a raise next season, even if he went pointless in 17 games to start the year. That’s just how it goes for players in the prime of their careers; the market guarantees there will be big money spent on elite players. But the way Nylander has raised his overall game – and while we’re very impressed with his two-way performance this year, we have to say that Nylander has jacked up his offensive game to almost ridiculous levels – he’s easily earned himself a salary in the $11-12-million range.

Again, there’s no way we see Treliving waiving the white flag and giving up on keeping Nylander. It would be borderline criminal to allow Nylander to leave via free agency or via trade. He’s said many times he wants to stay in Toronto, so the onus is on the GM to make the money work.

The way things are structured, next season’s cap situation could be extremely tight, but in the long run, the Leafs’ cap picture definitely allows for Nylander to stay in Blue and White. He doesn’t need to raise his game anymore – he’s already at what would be the pinnacle for most other mere mortal athletes, and if Toronto gets a similar showing from him for the next eight years, he’ll be worth every penny of the raise he’s earned.