Where Does Blame Lie For Winless Eagles?

DENVER – The Colorado Eagles opened the 2021-22 AHL regular season on the road against the Henderson Silver Knights two weekends ago. The result? A 5-4 shootout loss on Friday, Oct. 15 and a 6-3 defeat on Sunday, Oct. 17. Colorado then headed to Loveland for its home opening weekend against the San Jose. Barracuda Those results? A 5-4 loss on Friday, Oct. 22 and a 3-2 defeat on Saturday, Oct. 23. 

Now, alongside San Diego and Lehigh Valley, the Eagles remain one of three winless teams in the AHL through two weekends of play.

A rough start for a team predicted to reach 77 points and a second place divisional finish in Sean O’Brien’s preseason projection model. So, what has exactly been happening with the hapless Eagles in these first four games of the season?

THE CALL-UPS

Ah yes, anyone familiar with the NHL-AHL dynamic expects call-ups during the season. But, the Colorado Avalanche came right out of the gate with a couple of key forwards missing action. Nathan MacKinnon sat out the first two games with a positive COVID-19 test. Gabriel Landeskog was suspended for two games after boarding Chicago’s Kirby Dach. 

The Avs needed reinforcements straight away, so plucked up from the Eagles were forwards Martin Kaut, Mikhail Maltsev, Stefan Matteau, Jayson Megna, and Dylan Sikura. Granted, not all of these guys were up with the Avs at the same time, but that’s a good grip of your top AHL forwards with the parent club to start the year. Kaut, Maltsev, and Sikura have all played a handful of Eagles games since then, but Megna has stayed up with the Avs & Matteau was placed on IR on Oct. 17 and LTIR on Oct. 18.

It’s very hard to develop chemistry when so many of your top wingers are called into NHL duty.

ON OFFENSE, ON DEFENSE

The Eagles have been known at the AHL level for both decent scoring acumen & peppering the opposition with shots on goal. And despite its record so far, Colorado’s calling card remains the same in 2021-22, with an over three goals per game average and a league-leading shots for per game total.

On the other side of the coin, the Eagles defensive efforts have been historically average to below average. Through four games this season, Colorado’s goals allowed is one of the worst in the AHL, but its shots allowed per game is in the league’s top five.

Reading between the lines here, the offense is holding up their end of the bargain by producing an average of 3.25 goals per game on almost 45 shots on goal per game. The defense, however, cannot allow an average of almost five goals an outing and expect the Eagles to emerge victorious. The fact that this is on an average of slightly over 25 shots allowed per game is baffling.

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ON SPECIAL TEAMS

The power play and penalty kill for Colorado are the next two logical areas to examine for its early-season woes. Last year I covered how, both historically and under former assistant coach Brett Clark, the Eagles were doing well to very well on both the PP and PK.

Colorado finished last season ranked sixth on the PP (21.4%) and fifth on the PK (84.2%).

Early on this season, the Eagles power play looks very much the same as it ever was – six PP goals on 19 tries for a 31.6% conversion rate, good for third overall league-wide. The penalty kill? Yikes, don’t look. Six power play goals allowed on 16 chances, a 62.5% kill rate that sits dead last in the AHL.

New assistant coach Tim Branham is having a difficult time translating his ECHL-tooled ways to the next level, at least when it comes to the penalty kill for Colorado.

BE PATIENT WITH THE BLUE LINERS

It’s easy to see why the Eagles are struggling on the defensive end of the puck so far in 2021-22. There are only four remaining defensemen from 2020-21 that have taken the ice for the Eagles this season: Justin Barron, Dennis Gilbert, Jacob MacDonald, and Keaton Middleton. Utilizing Sean O’Brien’s player analytics model, MacDonald comes in as a first pairing AHL defenseman, both Gilbert and Middleton rank as third pairing AHL d-men, and Barron’s rookie sample size is too small to gather an accurate reading.

Solid first and second pairing defensemen like Kyle Burroughs, Dan Renouf, Ian Schied, and Conor Timmins all departed Colorado this offseason. In their place came Andreas Englund (DNP in 2020-21; replacement level in 2019-20), Jordan Gross (Arizona/taxi squad in 2020-21; first pairing AHL d-man in 2019-20), Rob Hamilton (replacement level in 2020-21; second pairing AHL d-man in 2019-20); and Roland McKeown (played in SHL in 2020-21; second pairing AHL d-man in 2019-20). Three of those four played last season. Of those three, the average amount of games played is just over 16 per skater.

What I see is four new defensemen bringing in unique circumstances – coming back after a season off, playing in only seven NHL games in 2020-21, looking to bounce back after a down year, and readjusting to the North American game after playing abroad. Throwing these guys together and expecting immediate chemistry is unrealistic, so as the header suggests, be patient while the Eagles’ defense works out the kinks.

NEED PATIENCE IN NET, TOO

A 4.75 goals against per game average is going to garner looks at the goaltending for Colorado, as well. Making appearances in all four of the Eagles games thus far has been rookie netminder Justus Annunen. His numbers in those four games played: 0-2-1 record, 3.61 goals against average, and .850 save percentage. That’s just a slight dip from last season: 0-1-1 record, 2.93 GAA, and .900 SV%. 

Yes, Annunen has yet to see his first victory in North American pro hockey.

Aside from a horrid 40 minutes backstopped by Hunter Miska, Annunen has been the man in net for Colorado, for better or (mostly) worse. The Avalanche organization is clearly kicking the tires on who it hopes will be the goalie of the future down in Denver. Bare in mind, the 21-year-old Finnish prospect is certainly adjusting from the European game he’s played all his life. But, should the Avalanche continue Annunen’s AHL test run this season, the growing pains may continue to bleed over into the loss column for the Eagles.

CONCLUSION

Having a number of top-line forwards called up to the Avalanche, an abysmal goals against per game average & penalty kill rate, half of the d-corps trying to gel on a new team, and a green goalie adjusting to the North American pro game all factor in the Eagles’ 0-3-0-1 start to the 2021-22 regular season. But, lastly, one nagging carry-over from last year also needs to be remedied – not shutting the door & earning the victory in close games.

So far this year, Colorado has lost three out of its four games by one-goal deficits (the outlier being the 6-3 defeat against Henderson on Oct. 17). Two of those close games saw the Eagles with a one-goal lead heading into the third period, while the third game was tied going into the final regulation frame.

Throw it on the pile of transgressions, but the Eagles need to find the killer instinct to close out games. It bit them time and again last year, and it continues to do so this season. Until that’s remedied, Colorado will continue to be on the bottom looking up in the Pacific Division standings.