Bo Helps: Why the Islanders Need Horvat, and Where They Go From Here

Constructing a magnificent building isn’t easy.

It takes time, planning, materials, and the right people to make it rise from the ground. It requires every brick, every column, and every angle to fit together and form something that will not only stand up — but out from the rest of the crowd.

Over the years, the building might need to be renovated to either maintain or reclaim its status. Eventually, it may have to be demolished, but not before it’s been conclusively determined that renovations can no longer save it.

The New York Islanders have a flawed core, and though it needs to be renovated, it is not beyond saving.

As I’ve said all along, they are not going to contend for a championship as currently constructed, which means they need to replace some of the aging infrastructure to get back up to code. This is not the kind of team that has nothing to build around, and I’m going to explain why.

First, let’s discuss the Isles’ aging issue.

Ilya Sorokin and newly acquired Bo Horvat are 27. Mathew Barzal is 25. Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov are both 23. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock are 28. Even factoring in Brock Nelson (31) and J.G. Pageau (30), the average age of those nine players is just under 27 years old.

So, the idea that the whole team is past its prime and needs to be torn down is utter nonsense.

What is fair to say, however, is that a portion of this roster has aged, particularly on the wings. For example, as much as Anders Lee has meant to the Islanders, he’ll be 33 in July. Josh Bailey‘s best days are behind him and he’s already 33. Kyle Palmieri is 32. Those are three wingers playing key roles that are either aging, regressing, or a combination of the two. And, in Bailey and Palmieri’s cases, the production simply isn’t there.

You can’t have that, and that’s where the real issue lies. It’s not that the whole team has gotten old; it’s that some of it has, and that’s affecting the Isles’ overall performance. So, that’s where the renovation needs to be focused: swapping out the wings.

Adding Horvat is a major step toward that goal. Now, you have a surplus at the center position, which means you can trade someone like Nelson for a younger top-six winger that phases out or reduces the role of a Bailey or Palmieri. That’s a big deal. Or, maybe sliding one of the current centers over to the wing achieves a similar effect. So, that will help.

But that still leaves you with two problems:

1) Even in a reduced role, some of those players are still a liability on the ice.
2) Bailey and Palmieri each have $5M cap hits, which hinders the Islanders when it comes to adding the other pieces they need through trade or free agency.

There’s at least a partial solution here, though. You can move one of them in a trade and agree to take on some of the salary, or you can buy a player out and at least reduce the cap hit while freeing up a roster spot. It’s not a perfect solution, but it’s been done before and can help.

Worst-case scenario, Bailey and Matt Martin come off the books after next season, which frees up $6.5M in cap space. Plus, the cap is expected to rise and there are other players they might be able to move instead to shed salary. They will have options, even after they re-sign Sorokin.

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All of this brings me back to the main point I’m trying to make here, which is that the Bo Horvat trade is not just about 2023.

Odds are, the Islanders aren’t winning a Stanley Cup this season. They have things to work out that can’t necessarily be fixed overnight. It might take a year or two. But even if it’s two, Horvat and Sorokin will be 29, Barzal will be 27, and Dobson will be 25. Pelech and Pulock will still be in their primes at 30. They will have their shot to build a winner. They just need to retool.

Part of that was always going to involve bringing in more offense from the outside. That’s what it takes, and that’s why they signed him for the next eight years. Because without adding someone like him, there’s no point to any of this.

Of course, it would’ve been better had this been done sooner. But as long as it’s not too late (and it isn’t), better late than never.

If you’re worried about draft picks and prospects, you’re advocating for a full-on rebuild, and that’s not where the Islanders are right now; not when they still have all of that talent with an average age under 27. That’s not when you tear everything down. That’s when you fix it.

Adding Bo Horvat is phase one.

Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @DanJFriedman