“In-The-Process” Leafs Shouldn’t Be Top-Tier Stanley Cup Frontrunners Just Yet

As opening night of the 2022-23 NHL regular season loomed just a handful of days away, the Toronto Maple Leafs were looking sharp and feeling confident, winning four of five pre-season games against their Atlantic Division opponents, and outsourcing the opposition 18-5 in those four wins. It’s never wise to put a lot of stock in preseason action, but Toronto’s depth stood out in their victories, with split squads pulling off wins, and looking capable in and out of their own zone.

But it was a little bit shocking to see the Leafs pegged by more than a few betting websites as top-tier Stanley Cup frontrunners this season.

Most sites had the defending Cup-champion Colorado Avalanche as the best of the best when it comes to winning it all again, but the Leafs slotted in second in the league in that regard, and while it’s a compliment on Buds that just doesn’t feel right. It’s not as if Toronto has accomplished much of anything in the playoffs, so you’d think teams like Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Carolina and the New York Rangers would fare better than the Leafs in betting odds.

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This is not to demean or diminish the team Toronto GM Kyle Dubas has put together. Certainly, having the league’s most recent most valuable player in Auston Matthews is an advantage all teams would highly desire. Toronto also has a stacked collection of forwards, and a defense corps that, relatively quietly, is one of the better ones in the Eastern Conference. The Leafs do need health-challenged veteran Jake Muzzin in the lineup to give them a physical presence, but even if Muzzin is sidelined by back or concussion problems, they have former Norris Trophy-winner Mark Giordano in Blue and White for a full season; Giordano is a great bargain at a $750,000 salary cap hit, and his guidance and on-ice savviness is going to be a terrific benefit for Toronto.

With all that said, the biggest question mark for the Leafs is, clearly, their goaltending. It’s hard to say that the Buds’ new goalie tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, two netminders who did not live up to expectations with either of their teams in recent years, are projected to be capable of leading Toronto to multiple playoff series wins, let alone a Cup victory. While Colorado proved last season a team can win a Cup with slightly above-average goaltending, it’s fair to be in “show-me, don’t tell me” mode with this Leafs lineup.

It will be readily apparent early in the season what the Leafs are going to get out of their goaltenders this year. In the improved Atlantic, they can’t afford to have both Samsonov and Murray struggle to regain their peak form, and there are no goalies on the trade market to turn to if things go south in net for Toronto. Dubas has staked his job on at least one of the new goalies panning out, but that’s not a reason to put the house on the Leafs making a huge jump in terms of their playoff performance. It could all go wrong for the Buds, and there are plenty of deep, veteran squads out there who can defy these odds and take the Cup home.

It would be a gigantic story if the Leafs proved capable of winning the Cup this season. Toronto would blow up real good with giddiness and pure joy. Other markets with fans who loathe the Leafs would blow up real good with anger and jealousy. But again, we’re talking about a team that hasn’t made it out of the first round of the post-season since 2003-04. Winning a Cup is usually a process, and the Leafs feel like more of an early-in-the-process team. You can stake a lot on them being the last team standing this season, but a sober appraisal argues you’re taking a significant risk in doing so.